NA Cup

[pezz97]

7 -- Pace, purse $1,000,000 (EX, P3, SU, TR)
D-PEPSI NORTH AMERICA CUP XXX - FINAL - 3 YEAR OLDS.
Post time: 09:38 P.M.         Lasix: 05:23 P.M.          Horses Entered: 11
   1 Apprentice Hanover                 J Jamieson          B Wallace            20-1                   
   2 Vegas Vacation                     S Zeron             C Coleman             5-2                   
   3 Fool Me Once                       S Filion            M Austin              4-1                   
   4 Captaintreacherous                 Ti Tetrick          T Alagna              2-1                   
   5 Twilight Bonfire(L)                D Miller            D Collins            30-1                   
   6 Wake Up Peter                      R Pierce            T Alagna              8-1                   
   7 Sunshine Beach                     C Christoforou      M Steacy             15-1                   
   8 Odds On Equuleus                   J Campbell          R Schadt              8-1                   
   9 Captive Audience                   Ra Waples           C Johnson             8-1                   
  10 Martini Hanover(L)                 D Palone            C Ryder              25-1         

[pezz97]

This is going to be a great race. I can use 6 to 7 of them to end the pick 4

[RocknRoll]

This is going to be a great race. I can use 6 to 7 of them to end the pick 4

6 to 7? Really? First I'm not sure you can count that high, but you only have 3-4 toss outs? So you toss Apprentice, Martini and Bonfire and use the rest? Sunshine Beach doesn't appear to be good enough imo...so the other 6 maybe? Maybe...

[pezz97]

6 to 7? Really? First I'm not sure you can count that high, but you only have 3-4 toss outs? So you toss Apprentice, Martini and Bonfire and use the rest? Sunshine Beach doesn't appear to be good enough imo...so the other 6 maybe? Maybe...

That is as high as I can count..

[NIATROSS]

That is as high as I can count..

use the all 

[caveman]

6-8-2 box

[LVGaryD]

Looks pretty simple to me. 432 342

[pezz97]

6 to 7? Really? First I'm not sure you can count that high, but you only have 3-4 toss outs? So you toss Apprentice, Martini and Bonfire and use the rest? Sunshine Beach doesn't appear to be good enough imo...so the other 6 maybe? Maybe...

Ok you are right, only going to use 4

[Yeah Baby]

6 to 7? Really? First I'm not sure you can count that high, but you only have 3-4 toss outs? So you toss Apprentice, Martini and Bonfire and use the rest? Sunshine Beach doesn't appear to be good enough imo...so the other 6 maybe? Maybe...

 

What a great card, should be a great night!

[Mags]

I'm going with Vegas Vacation..lots of bad luck last year and looked well in hand to me during elims..CC in Canada awfully tough

[CyberChamp]

Going to be a great race!

Do you think Palone leaves here and gets parked?  Yannick not here to give Palone a hole.   

Guessing how this race might shape up:

Fool Me Once will secure the early lead with Apprentice Hanover briefly in the two-hole.  Vegas Vacation will brush after the quarter.  That will leave Captaintreacherous first up.  I don't think SZeron will yield and I don't see El Capitan outkicking them after a sub-1:21 three quarter time.  Captain will tire, Odds on Equuleus and Captive Audience will come roaring down the stretch.  Fool Me Once will pull pocket and it will be a photo for win between Odds on Equuleus and Fool Me Once.  The show spot will be contested between Captive Audience, a tiring Vegas Vacation, and a fast closing Wake Up Peter.

Super 38/38/269/269

Other considerations:

I can't see Tetrick fighting for the early lead with Filion.  If he tries and doesn't get it, and he probably won't, he would have to "two move" early.

It's possible that Tetrick will follow Vegas Vacation's move to the top and try to brush past him.  He hasn't emptied the tank on El Capitan since the Crown, but I think that would give him his best chance to win tonight. 

What concerns me tonight is that, outside of the 3 elim winners, the other key contenders are starting pretty far outside (posts 8 and 9).  That could allow the front end to get away with a relatively soft 2nd quarter (soft for the finals, not soft in general).  That would benefit the front end and you can tear up my super tickets.

How do you guys see the race developing?

[LVGaryD]

I see Filion turning Captain loose before the quarter and those two in a win photo.

[Headpole Dave]

I see it as Filion and Tetrick blasting off the wings, Vegas doesn't have their gate speed. Filion will let Tetrick go to sit second, Zeron coming first over from fourth. Tetrick rolls and fights off all comers till Filion shakes late to get it all...

[burton]

Looking for Captive Audience to float out and grab some cover while a wicked pace develops allowing him to close by all in the lane.
His effort last week was amazing.
He has improved with every passing week and looks to be the winner at a decent price tonight on top of 2,4,8.

[RocknRoll]

I see Vegas coming from off the pace tonight. Fool Me Once will blast, Timmy probably floats out and looks to brush, and then a few others will fire out, one of them might be Captive Audience in a surprise move leaving Zeron maybe 6th. If he's lucky he gets the nice cover trip he said the horse is actually better with. I feel like Fool Me Once forces everyone behind him early and then releases Timmy on a backside move leaving himself in a  perfect spot to win it all late.