NFL Week 10

[tonyb147]

I'm going to give away my betting system for free 

After every week I rate every team with one of three ratings:
PLUS: a big win, either winning straight-up as a dog, winning by 14 more than you were supposed to based on the spread, or a last minute/OT win, etc
MINUS: the team on the opposite end of a PLUS
NEUTRAL: the result of the game was pretty much as expected

Yes, the ratings are subjective and not an exact science.

My ratings for Week 9:

NEUTRAL:
DAL 23-13 SEA
ATL 31-7 IND (could be PLUS but everyone kills IND)
HOU 30-12 CLE
SF 19-11 WAS
NO 27-16 TB
GB 45-38 SD
Team on a bye are generally given a neutral but sometimes I will look back at the game they played before the bye.

PLUS/MINUS:
NYJ 27-11 BUF
MIA 31-3 KC
CIN 24-17 (could be neutral but was a big road win)
DEN 38-24 OAK
NYG 24-20 NE
AZ 19-13 STL (neutral based on outcome but OT win)
BAL 23-20 PIT (neutral based on outcome base late TD win against division team)
CHI 30-24 PHI

Next you look at this week's games. You are looking for a matchup between a PLUS and a MINUS. You will bet the MINUS. The logic is the lines can get skewed based on the previous week's performance. I like to call it "reverse logic".

This week you have:

PIT -3 CIN
KC -3 DEN (opened KC -7)
PHI -14 AZ
NE +1.5 NYJ (opened NE -2.5)

Also consider:
DET +3 CHI (Chi coming off big MNF win playing off a short week against a well rested division opponent)

Some weeks, like this one, there are multiple plays. Other weeks there are none. If I find some time at work tonight I may go back and see how the system would have done to date this year.

I haven't made an NFL wager all year but I'm thinking of jumping back in this week, mostly to tune-up for Vegas next weekend.

Good luck. 

[AmyHollar]

Consider yourself to have the first topic I have ever printed. 

[Yeah Baby]

Good Luck next week Tony.....

[Yeah Baby]

I played your plays Tony.... Good luck..

[AmyHollar]

I played your plays Tony.... Good luck..

Me too.....but maybe I shouldn't have admitted that..........I don't need the Black Cat Jack reputation.

[tonyb147]

And that's why I have stopped betting football. I'm sorry to all that may have lost playing these. When I'm out there next Sunday I may not even look at the NFL. I'll just follow Gary around and let him take my money - at least it will be entertaining. 

[pezz97]

I am so tired of these ref's calling unnecessary roughness on a defenseless receiver when it is not even close. They just called one where the patriot guy hit his own guy and not the receiver!!!! WTF!!!

[Danville]

Someone should open an investigation re. the Filthydelphia eglets. Early on a decent looking club. Now --awful!!
Don't care who it is but sometime in the next couple of games would you please take Fatman Stafford's head off !! What a cheap shot but then it was the Detroit street thugs. Guess that makes it legal cause he didn't even draw a flag.
Detroit is rapidly becoming the dirtiest team in the NFL but then look at the coach.

[Jeremy]

I am so tired of these ref's calling unnecessary roughness on a defenseless receiver when it is not even close. They just called one where the patriot guy hit his own guy and not the receiver!!!! WTF!!!

those calls need to be reviewable

[pezz97]

those calls need to be reviewable

I agree

[NIATROSS]

Some of these rules confuse the chit out of me.
Last night there was no fumble because Gronkowski's elbow hit the ground first.Last yr in the end zone against the Bears the Lions were denied a TD.

[Danville]

Some of these rules confuse the chit out of me.
Last night there was no fumble because Gronkowski's elbow hit the ground first.Last yr in the end zone against the Bears the Lions were denied a TD.

     Of course they do. You're a Packer fan.     

[Brush and Crush]

I am so tired of these ref's calling unnecessary roughness on a defenseless receiver when it is not even close. They just called one where the patriot guy hit his own guy and not the receiver!!!! WTF!!!

 

couldn't agree with you more,  I think it takes something away from the game.  I was pissed when they flagged Briggs for the hit on Calvin Johnson.  What the hell do they want these guys to do???  Just let CJ catch it?

[NIATROSS]

    Of course they do. You're a Packer fan.     

Please get it right.

I AM AN UNDEFEATED DEFENDING SUPER BOWL CHAMPION GREEN BAY PACKER FAN !

 

[Just Saying]

Please get it right.

I AM AN UNDEFEATED DEFENDING SUPER BOWL CHAMPION GREEN BAY PACKER FAN !

 

Well... I've had a World Champion with The St Louis Cards already this year, now when The Dallas Cowboys win The Super Bowl it will be a perfect year!