Morning Line Favorites

[NIATROSS]

I agree a ML cappers job is not easy...the argument from Headpole Dave was the ML horse should be live and win the race.   That is far from realistic.

Dave has nothing to do with this.You clearly posted the m/l  is to be used for nothing but utter laughter.

Are you going to take the test or shall we just laugh at you as you laugh at the m/l makers ?

[javelina]

Dave has nothing to do with this.You clearly posted the m/l  is to be used for nothing but utter laughter.

Are you going to take the test or shall we just laugh at you as you laugh at the m/l makers ?

I am not sure what you are asking?   It seems your grasping at straws after the theory on morning line went up in smoke.

You subsequently quoted a portion of my reply, but failed to answer the question that begun it.

I explained my method and didn't claim to be a ML capper.   Just because I make my line and set a horses value at 5/2, if I think see on replay that a horse was locked in, driven poorly, etc and he gets an extra star at 6/1 he might be a stronger play.   On the same token if a horse I think should be 5/2 based on his lines and then I watch the replay where he was driven well, placed in a striking spot and didn't fire, I naturally do not play those even at 99 to 1.

I hope you can follow my rational.   

[NIATROSS]

I am not grasping at any straws.
The only things that went  in up smoke were BlueChips comment that m/l fav bettors went home broke.
The other thing was your comment that the only thing the m/l was good for was utter laughter.

It is really simple post who you think will win every race at any card at any track of your choosing.
Do this ar least 6 hrs before the start of the card and we will check your returns.
If you do better than the m/l favs made by the trackman than you can laugh all you want at them.
If not we will all laugh at you.
What will it be ? Do the contest or  retract your statements about m/l 's.
Or just plain run and do nothing.

[javelina]

I am not grasping at any straws.
The only things that went  in up smoke were BlueChips comment that m/l fav bettors went home broke.
The other thing was your comment that the only thing the m/l was good for was utter laughter.

It is really simple post who you think will win every race at any card at any track of your choosing.
Do this ar least 6 hrs before the start of the card and we will check your returns.
If you do better than the m/l favs made by the trackman than you can laugh all you want at them.
If not we will all laugh at you.
What will it be ? Do the contest or  retract your statements about m/l 's.
Or just plain run and do nothing.

That is not how I handicap.   
It is however the job of the track handicapper to set the lines.

You can make apple juice with apples but you can't make Grape Juice with apples.

Sorta like the saying, you cant make chicken soup with chicken shit.   

It's not my recipe for picking winners.

If I could only do 33% of my job, my boss would fire me.  As would any employer.   My co workers would laugh as well or demand my replacement.

Again we have gotten off topic.   The point to the thread was that Headpole Dave surmised that a ML favorite should be live and win the race, I suggested it simply was far from the truth.   I backed up the data and you spun this into some challenge against me...

The bottom line is Dave was wrong and iif you bet ML chalks you will be broke.   The ML means zero. 

[NIATROSS]

Gosh what  a surprise you chose to NOT take the challenge,

We can all just laugh at you now.
You said the M/L was to be used for utter laughter yet failed to EVEN try to prove you can do better.

Baseball players who can hit .300 are multi millionares.
On air weather people bat about 33% also.
You made a big deal of Brainard winning at a 25% clip.
Great T bred jocks have about a 20% win clip.
So again you saying ANY employer would fire someone who did their job only 33% of the time is a joke and your way of trying to bail out on the challenge.

[The Giss]

Collared Peccary

How many of those ML favorites went off as the favorite? The ML IS NOT handicapping. It is a prediction of how the public will wager. If the majority were favorites, then the ML was good. That is made clear to anyone who is tasked with making a morning line.
 

[javelina]

Collared Peccary

How many of those ML favorites went off as the favorite? The ML IS NOT handicapping. It is a prediction of how the public will wager. If the majority were favorites, then the ML was good. That is made clear to anyone who is tasked with making a morning line.

Giss I agree with what you are saying about the ML, unfortunately headpole dave assumes the ML favorite should win races or be more of a factor.   This thread was to illustrate the reality of the ML and winners.

The money side came into play after when the spin zone began.   Then of course that idea failed and then it became "WeLD yoU ArE StuPiT HEad aND YoU maKE BEttER PIckinGS oF wINNeRS 6 HoURs beFOre oR aLL arE LAughiNG aT YoU, BiG DumMY!".

The progression of this got way off track.

The bottom line and point of this, is the ML has "ZERO" effect on the performance and/or result of a race.

Furthermore we learned, wagering on the ML favorite in every race will result in significant loses.

I agreed to the stipulation that the job of ML handicapper is difficult because at the time of setting the line one cannot have all the pieces of the puzzle needed to accurately set said line.

[GalloBlueChip]

I made a statement last night and of the 3 tracks I was watching and wagering I compiled the following data.   

11 Morning Line winners from 36 races.   Just shy of 33%. 

What does this tell us?   The morning line handicappers are about as good as the general public in picking the winner.

As Giss has stated, the Proper way to gauge the above statement is to count how many of those 36 ML Favorites actually went OFF the favorite, not how many won, that's irrelevant.

[javelina]

As Giss has stated, the Proper way to gauge the above statement is to count how many of those 36 ML Favorites actually went OFF the favorite, not how many won, that's irrelevant.

No disagreement with your statement or gisses, as a matter of fact I agree.   

Luckily the sun has not scorched my bald head...so I could gather that this topic has nothing to do with the track oddman and his ability to gauge the morning line.

THIS TOPIC---Was started because another member (possibly bald as well) stated that a morning line favorite failed to win and therefore must not have gotten gassed up by his connections.

I then listed glabrously that the ML has no determination on the winner as depicted in 25/36 events.

Of course the spin doctors then wanted to portray a different angle on the ML and its effect on winning or losing money, when it came to wagering on ML favorites.