Morning Line Favorites

[javelina]

I made a statement last night and of the 3 tracks I was watching and wagering I compiled the following data.   

11 Morning Line winners from 36 races.   Just shy of 33%. 

What does this tell us?   The morning line handicappers are about as good as the general public in picking the winner.

I never advise anyone to use the ML for any purpose other then utter laughter.


Vernon 6/22

Race 1 #6 finish 2nd
Race 2 #4 WINNER
Race 3 #2 finish 2nd
Race 4 #5 WINNER
Race 5 #7 finish 4th
Race 6 #4 WINNER
Race 7 #3 WINNER
Race 8 #2 finish 4th
Race 9 #6 finish 2nd
Race 10 #2 WINNER
Race 11 #4 finish 2nd
Race 12 #7 finish 8th
Race 13 #4 finish 3rd


Tioga 6/22
Race 1 #2 WINNER
Race 2 #7 finish 6th
Race 3 #4 WINNER
Race 4 #4 finish 8th
Race 5 #2 WINNER
Race 6 #1 finish 4th
Race 7 #8 finish 2nd
Race 8 #2 finsih 3rd
Race 9 #2 finish 6th
Race 10 #2 finsih 8th
Race 11 #4 finish 2nd

Meadowlands 6/22
Race 1 #5 finish 6th
Race 2 #2 finish 2nd
Race 3 #3 WINNER
Race 4 #2 finish 2nd
Race 5 #4 finsih 2nd
Race 6 #3 finish 8th
Race 7 #6 WINNER
Race 8 #1 finish 7th
Race 9 #1 finish 4th
Race 10 #2 finish 2nd
Race 11 #9 finish 6th
Race 12 #6 WINNER

[Blue Chip55]

Nice job there Java
Morning lines have always been meaningless.
In fact, they are not even a good indication of a horses' post time odds which is really what they were originally designed to
indicate. For a good laugh, check Harrahs at PhillyChester. Morning line odds of 10-1 routinely go off at 6-5 all day long. The entire M/L concept is a joke  and making a statement that a M/L favorite is "supposed " to win is comical.

I think Java's above chart makes a pretty strong case for that.

 The M/L has been known to be helpful in pick 3's,4's and 5's by being so blatantly off --- it can bolster your price on someone he makes 8-1 and goes off 2-1. Value comes into play in that scenario as the general public uses these phony M/L favorites. Best thing to do is handicap and bet who you like based on your opinion which is hopefully a good one.

But in reality, like the man said, if you are looking for winners and base your play on the M/L, there's a pretty good shot you'll be driving home broke. Last night you would have. And more than likely tonight as well.

[NIATROSS]

But in reality, like the man said, if you are looking for winners and base your play on the M/L, there's a pretty good shot you'll be driving home broke. Last night you would have. And more than likely tonight as well.

Can you please post the total payoffs for all those favorites that won.
This way we can see exactly how much was won or lost.

[Headpole Dave]

So at Vernon the ML favorite finished first or second in 9 out of 13 races and it's "not a factor"? Nice try on the spin machine.

[javelina]

Can you please post the total payoffs for all those favorites that won.
This way we can see exactly how much was won or lost.

You mean the win payoff's on the 11 morning line favorites that won?

[javelina]

So at Vernon the ML favorite finished first or second in 9 out of 13 races and it's "not a factor"? Nice try on the spin machine.

Dave last night was 3YO NYSS which tend to run chalky.   Unlike the typical overnights.   They seed the splits and don't put the top few horses in against themselves to preserve that big race for the final.

As I said I just used the 3 books I had here.   I encourage you or any other interested party to run the numbers for other days and see the results.

[NIATROSS]

You mean the win payoff's on the 11 morning line favorites that won?

Yes,Blue Chip claims that those who played them went home broke.
I highly doubt it.

[javelina]

Yes,Blue Chip claims that those who played them went home broke.
I highly doubt it.

I will work on the figures.   When I did the work many were odds on who won.

[NIATROSS]

I will work on the figures.   When I did the work many were odds on who won.

I already know the answer just waiting for Blue Chip to back up his claim that those who played only the m/l favs went home broke.

[javelina]

Yes,Blue Chip claims that those who played them went home broke.
I highly doubt it.

36 races x 2.00 per race =72.00

Winners of 2.80, 5.80, 3.80, 4.20, 2.40, 6.00, 5.50, 6.10, 3.80, 9.20, 3.60

Total Winners = 53.20
Loses on bets 18.80

That is awful bad and just based on 2$ wagers.   

[javelina]

I already know the answer just waiting for Blue Chip to back up his claim that those who played only the m/l favs went home broke.

I just posted the results.   A 2$ better likely comes to the track with 20-40 bucks.   He lost 18.80, so he went home close to broke or real broke.

ML handicappers and guys who follow the ML as a means of wagering criteria go broke every time.

[Blue Chip55]

He may have had atoll money---if he ate at the raceway he went home broke

Its a horrible move betting all morning  line favorites


Those that do tonight will again go home broke

Value is the name of the gamea and always is going to be---33% and you busted out last night---not good

[NIATROSS]

Oh so now he had toll money and may have bet at the raceway ?

 

No one ever said it was a smart betting all m/l favs.
However it is a smarter move than you saying they went home broke.

Smart bettors hit on avg 33% it is what they pay that counts.

[NIATROSS]

I never advise anyone to use the ML for any purpose other then utter laughter.

Those ML's favs came back at about $1.39 for ea $2 wager for the night at those 3 tracks.

Post your piks at any track at least 6 hrs in advance and see how well you do.
Or are you afraid to be laughed also ?

[javelina]

Those ML's favs came back at about $1.39 for ea $2 wager for the night at those 3 tracks.

Post your piks at any track at least 6 hrs in advance and see how well you do.
Or are you afraid to be laughed also ?

You mean when I make my line so I can decide if there is value in my plays?

When I print the program, I black out the ML right away, I do not want to see them.   Usually the day before the card I am watching.   Then during the course of a normal day I do the program and instill my own lines which I use later to determine value.   

Then of course I do the replay work marking live horses or poor trips, etc.   

With all that I formulate what I might play but my final plays are determined moments before post, when all the potential information is in front of me.

I agree a ML cappers job is not easy...the argument from Headpole Dave was the ML horse should be live and win the race.   That is far from realistic.