In The Sulky Forum
General Category => General Harness Racing Discussion => Topic started by: jug on July 23, 2012, 06:53:04 PM
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Just got done having a discussion with one of my track buddies and we disagreed.
If you concentrate on only one track (your best one) and made a win only bet on your top play.....what percentage would you expect to pick?
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40%
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would it have to be every race, or just the races if felt more confident?
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would it have to be every race, or just the races if felt more confident?
Glad you asked Jeremy.....I forgot to mention PLAYING ONLY ONE RACE for the night!
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based on my recent results I'd say 0% but I digress..will be looking to raise it this saturday night rflmao1
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Well I better find out, although I will only look and make a prediction on days I plan to go out and bet.
One race what I feel the most confident about I would think about 50% of the time.
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based on my recent results I'd say 0% but I digress..will be looking to raise it this saturday night rflmao1
Look at the good side, it has to get better! rflmao1
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im with Jeremy 50 %
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Well I better find out, although I will only look and make a prediction on days I plan to go out and bet.
One race what I feel the most confident about I would think about 50% of the time.
I think it would be much higher at Nfld!...jmo
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I think it would be much higher at Nfld!...jmo
Knowing you jug 10% a good number
rflmao1 rflmao1 rflmao1 rflmao1
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Knowing you jug 10% a good number
rflmao1 rflmao1 rflmao1 rflmao1
I take that as a compliment....10% is one hell of a number! rflmao1
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I am curious to see the Giss's number......I am sure he probably tracked his picks!
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Hey if the horse pays 80 bucks 10% aint bad.
rflmao1 rflmao1 rflmao1 rflmao1 insert Old Style icon here.
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It has always been my understanding that the best cappers have about a 33% strike rate.
Then we all know about the infamous capper named " nickels " who wins 98% of the time.
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Playing one race a night-- rflmao1 rflmao1 rflmao1 rflmao1 Who the hell does that!
If I wanted to pick for winning % I think I would hit 60%
Of course, I don't like betting chaulk so if it was for ROI I'd be happy to hit 20% because I'd be looking to get 8-1 or better on the play.
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Like Hal infers, ROI and trying to win one race per night are two different things. I'm going to say no more than 30% winners if you picked one race every night.
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Like Hal infers, ROI and trying to win one race per night are two different things. I'm going to say no more than 30% winners if you picked one race every night.
30% ?........quit picking Dan Kennedy and Bruce Sturgeon and you numbers will improve! ;D
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Playing one race a night-- rflmao1 rflmao1 rflmao1 rflmao1 Who the hell does that!
If I wanted to pick for winning % I think I would hit 60%
Of course, I don't like betting chaulk so if it was for ROI I'd be happy to hit 20% because I'd be looking to get 8-1 or better on the play.
Nobody Hal, thats why 99% of us are losers! 4pezz2.....I usually play 12-13 races (per track)! rflmao1 rflmao1
I am confident that I could pick 50% at Nfld and Scioto.....nowhere near that anywhere else!
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I know "spot betting" I was proobably 80+ percent and some of those winners were good odds but that
might be one race a week. I have gone weeks tho just casual betting without a winner.
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I know "spot betting" I was proobably 80+ percent and some of those winners were good odds but that
might be one race a week. I have gone weeks tho just casual betting without a winner.
80%?
I gotta get my boots out. My hip boots. 4pezz2
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80%?
I gotta get my boots out. My hip boots. 4pezz2
You'd be amazed at the things you can do when you don't fill your body with weed, pain killers, 6 month
old bacon and 3 month old chili among other things. When racing was racing I can think of 8-10 guys
on this forum that could do that and even better. I wonder how many tris have you hit for 1 straight
$300.00 ticket ? or $30.00 straight supers ? 100.00 P-3's ? How many times have you left the track
with over 25k in your pocket ? If you payed any attention I used the word WAS because now I seldom
bet anymore, I don't like many races but I still think some guys here could "spot bet" better than 80%.
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I forgot to mention my buddy Pezzy doodles SWEPT the card on pace night, I know he had the pick 5
and I think both pick 4's and I don't know if he played the pick 6. bowdown
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When racing was racing I can think of 8-10 guys on this forum that could do that and even better. I wonder how many tris have you hit for 1 straight $300.00 ticket ? or $30.00 straight supers ? 100.00 P-3's ?
How many times have you left the track with over 25k in your pocket ? If you payed any attention I used the word WAS because now I seldom bet anymore, I don't like many races but I still think some guys here could "spot bet" better than 80%.
I never did any of that stuff. It would have been very easy though in Chicago in the 1970s though.
slaphead
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30% ?........quit picking Dan Kennedy and Bruce Sturgeon and you numbers will improve! ;D
rflmao1
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I forgot to mention my buddy Pezzy doodles SWEPT the card on pace night, I know he had the pick 5
and I think both pick 4's and I don't know if he played the pick 6. bowdown
bowdown bowdown
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I know "spot betting" I was proobably 80+ percent and some of those winners were good odds but that
might be one race a week. I have gone weeks tho just casual betting without a winner.
I have to agree with Skipper. If you ignore price and just play to win I think you can get in the 70-80% area. Doesn't mean your roi will be good if they're all 1/5.
My track is M1.
Friday I'll take two:
Race 2 #1 entry and Race 3 #4
Saturday I'll take two more:
Race 3 #3 and Race 10 #4
Lets give it a try.
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In my pursuit to win the bet and pick over 70% I have already hit a small bump!
A Virgil Morgan horse tonight you sat on the rail and never made a move! 4pezz2
Last night 1-1 with Semaj Sam at Scioto $5.80
Tonight 0-1 with Moiras Bliss as my second winner of the night coming up in a couple minutes at Nfld!
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I'm not a gambler, by nature, so I can enjoy watching a 12 race card without betting.(If they don't run out of beer) Hanging out with the likes of Carless Hal, Jug, The Family Pezz, Chicago Jazz, Yeah Baby, noc, Tony B, Amy Hollar, Beans & Weenies, Bettor, Overdover, Mr B, Cashman, Race Track Phil, and countless others is just a hoot. Best folks on the planet.
If I do bet I usually play a 4 horse tri-box for $1. I've hit several of those over the years and ended up ahead, though I don't know the %. I pick the 3 that should be in it, then look for some odds value for my 4th pick. I always enjoy watching a good race card at the track, versus watching it on the tube.
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It has always been my understanding that the best cappers have about a 33% strike rate.
Then we all know about the infamous capper named " nickels " who wins 98% of the time.
The "infamous" one been on a losing streak it would appear ??
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I'm not a gambler, by nature, so I can enjoy watching a 12 race card without betting.(If they don't run out of beer) Hanging out with the likes of Carless Hal, Jug, The Family Pezz, Chicago Jazz, Yeah Baby, noc, Tony B, Amy Hollar, Beans & Weenies, Bettor, Overdover, Mr B, Cashman, Race Track Phil, and countless others is just a hoot. Best folks on the planet.
If I do bet I usually play a 4 horse tri-box for $1. I've hit several of those over the years and ended up ahead, though I don't know the %. I pick the 3 that should be in it, then look for some odds value for my 4th pick. I always enjoy watching a good race card at the track, versus watching it on the tube.
Sure leave me off your list, guess I'm only good for doing your chores while you watch the cooler 4pezz2
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Sure leave me off your list, guess I'm only good for doing your chores while you watch the cooler 4pezz2
rflmao1
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rflmao1
I'm not a gambler either but with out you all I couldn't be enjoying these great Adios races from my deck......so thank you. redrose
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Sure leave me off your list, guess I'm only good for doing your chores while you watch the cooler 4pezz2
rflmao1 rflmao1 rflmao1
We Love hanging with you at the track, especially when someone tries to sit at your table at the pace rflmao1
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rflmao1 rflmao1 rflmao1
We Love hanging with you at the track, especially when someone tries to sit at your table at the pace rflmao1
Hey I almost let that guy with 2 wooden legs sit there but that bunch of punks was about to get a
boot up their shoot. noway Of course the 3 beautiful ladies were not at my table to keep the
riff raff away slaphead
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Just got done having a discussion with one of my track buddies and we disagreed.
If you concentrate on only one track (your best one) and made a win only bet on your top play.....what percentage would you expect to pick?
I have to agree with Skipper. If you ignore price and just play to win I think you can get in the 70-80% area. Doesn't mean your roi will be good if they're all 1/5.
My track is M1.
Friday I'll take two:
Race 2 #1 entry and Race 3 #4
Saturday I'll take two more:
Race 3 #3 and Race 10 #4
Lets give it a try.
4 for 4
Keep this up and people will start calling me "dimes" or something.
rflmao1
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4 for 4
Keep this up and people will start calling me "dimes" or something.
rflmao1
Nice try little buddy but it'll take a LOT to get rid of the "Gilligan" moniker rflmao1 rflmao1 rflmao1
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Sure leave me off your list, guess I'm only good for doing your chores while you watch the cooler 4pezz2
Shut up you big crybaby! No wonder my Bride fired you on the 1st day. (she scares me too)
rflmao1 rflmao1 rflmao1 rflmao1
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Shut up you big crybaby! No wonder my Bride fired you on the 1st day. (she scares me too)
rflmao1 rflmao1 rflmao1 rflmao1
rflmao1 rflmao1 rflmao1 And your bride don't scare me at all, I like it when she tells me what to do :-*
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rflmao1 rflmao1 rflmao1 And your bride don't scare me at all, I like it when she tells me what to do :-*
rflmao1