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General Category => General Harness Racing Discussion => Topic started by: jug on July 23, 2012, 06:53:04 PM

Title: Winning percentage question!
Post by: jug on July 23, 2012, 06:53:04 PM
Just got done having a discussion with one of my track buddies and we disagreed.


If you concentrate on only one track (your best one) and made a win only bet on your top play.....what percentage would you expect to pick?
Title: Re: Winning percentage question!
Post by: burton on July 23, 2012, 07:10:25 PM
40%
Title: Re: Winning percentage question!
Post by: Jeremy on July 23, 2012, 07:29:44 PM
would it have to be every race, or just the races if felt more confident?
Title: Re: Winning percentage question!
Post by: jug on July 23, 2012, 07:43:26 PM
would it have to be every race, or just the races if felt more confident?

Glad you asked Jeremy.....I forgot to mention PLAYING ONLY ONE RACE for the night!
Title: Re: Winning percentage question!
Post by: Mags on July 23, 2012, 08:13:36 PM
based on my recent results I'd say 0% but I digress..will be looking to raise it this saturday night  rflmao1
Title: Re: Winning percentage question!
Post by: Jeremy on July 23, 2012, 08:16:26 PM
Well I better find out, although I will only look and make a prediction on days I plan to go out and bet.


One race what I feel the most confident about I would think about 50% of the time.
Title: Re: Winning percentage question!
Post by: jug on July 23, 2012, 08:17:43 PM
based on my recent results I'd say 0% but I digress..will be looking to raise it this saturday night  rflmao1

Look at the good side, it has to get better!  rflmao1
Title: Re: Winning percentage question!
Post by: cashman on July 23, 2012, 08:20:11 PM
im with Jeremy 50 %
Title: Re: Winning percentage question!
Post by: jug on July 23, 2012, 08:20:36 PM
Well I better find out, although I will only look and make a prediction on days I plan to go out and bet.


One race what I feel the most confident about I would think about 50% of the time.

I think it would be much higher at Nfld!...jmo
Title: Re: Winning percentage question!
Post by: cashman on July 23, 2012, 08:22:44 PM
I think it would be much higher at Nfld!...jmo

Knowing you jug   10% a good number



 rflmao1 rflmao1 rflmao1 rflmao1
Title: Re: Winning percentage question!
Post by: jug on July 23, 2012, 08:24:51 PM
Knowing you jug   10% a good number



 rflmao1 rflmao1 rflmao1 rflmao1

I take that as a compliment....10% is one hell of a number!  rflmao1
Title: Re: Winning percentage question!
Post by: jug on July 23, 2012, 08:26:48 PM
I am curious to see the Giss's number......I am sure he probably tracked his picks!
Title: Re: Winning percentage question!
Post by: cashman on July 23, 2012, 08:27:11 PM
Hey if the horse pays 80 bucks     10% aint bad.



 rflmao1 rflmao1 rflmao1 rflmao1    insert Old Style icon here.
Title: Re: Winning percentage question!
Post by: NIATROSS on July 23, 2012, 09:19:17 PM
It has always been my understanding that the best cappers have about a 33% strike rate.

Then we all know about the infamous capper named " nickels " who wins 98% of the time.
Title: Re: Winning percentage question!
Post by: careless hal on July 23, 2012, 09:23:14 PM
Playing one race a night-- rflmao1 rflmao1 rflmao1 rflmao1  Who the hell does that!

If I wanted to pick for winning % I think I would hit 60%

Of course,  I don't like betting chaulk so if it was for ROI I'd be happy to hit 20% because I'd be looking to get 8-1 or better on the play.
Title: Re: Winning percentage question!
Post by: LVGaryD on July 23, 2012, 09:42:31 PM
Like Hal infers, ROI and trying to win one race per night are two different things. I'm going to say no more than 30% winners if you picked one race every night.
Title: Re: Winning percentage question!
Post by: jug on July 24, 2012, 08:46:21 AM
Like Hal infers, ROI and trying to win one race per night are two different things. I'm going to say no more than 30% winners if you picked one race every night.

30% ?........quit picking Dan Kennedy and Bruce Sturgeon and you numbers will improve!  ;D
Title: Re: Winning percentage question!
Post by: jug on July 24, 2012, 08:49:06 AM
Playing one race a night-- rflmao1 rflmao1 rflmao1 rflmao1  Who the hell does that!
If I wanted to pick for winning % I think I would hit 60%

Of course,  I don't like betting chaulk so if it was for ROI I'd be happy to hit 20% because I'd be looking to get 8-1 or better on the play.

Nobody Hal, thats why 99% of us are losers!  4pezz2.....I usually play 12-13 races (per track)!   rflmao1 rflmao1

I am confident that I could pick 50% at Nfld and Scioto.....nowhere near that anywhere else!
Title: Re: Winning percentage question!
Post by: The Skipper on July 24, 2012, 09:16:34 AM
 
I know "spot betting" I was proobably 80+ percent and some of those winners were good odds but that

might be one race a week. I have gone weeks tho just casual betting without a winner.
Title: Re: Winning percentage question!
Post by: LVGaryD on July 24, 2012, 10:24:38 AM

I know "spot betting" I was proobably 80+ percent and some of those winners were good odds but that

might be one race a week. I have gone weeks tho just casual betting without a winner.
80%?

I gotta get my boots out. My hip boots.  4pezz2
Title: Re: Winning percentage question!
Post by: The Skipper on July 24, 2012, 12:44:44 PM
80%?

I gotta get my boots out. My hip boots.  4pezz2

You'd be amazed at the things you can do when you don't fill your body with weed, pain killers, 6 month

old bacon and 3 month old chili among other things. When racing was racing I can think of 8-10 guys

on this forum that could do that and even better. I wonder how many tris have you hit for 1 straight

$300.00 ticket ? or $30.00 straight supers ? 100.00 P-3's ?  How many times have you left the track

with over 25k in your pocket ?  If you payed any attention I used the word WAS because now I seldom

bet anymore, I don't like many races but I still think some guys here could "spot bet" better than 80%.
Title: Re: Winning percentage question!
Post by: The Skipper on July 24, 2012, 12:52:00 PM

I forgot to mention my buddy Pezzy doodles SWEPT the card on pace night, I know he had the pick 5

and I think both pick 4's and I don't know if he played the pick 6.   bowdown
Title: Re: Winning percentage question!
Post by: LVGaryD on July 24, 2012, 12:59:53 PM
When racing was racing I can think of 8-10 guys on this forum that could do that and even better. I wonder how many tris have you hit for 1 straight $300.00 ticket ? or $30.00 straight supers ? 100.00 P-3's ? 

How many times have you left the track with over 25k in your pocket ?  If you payed any attention I used the word WAS because now I seldom bet anymore, I don't like many races but I still think some guys here could "spot bet" better than 80%.
I never did any of that stuff. It would have been very easy though in Chicago in the 1970s though.

 slaphead
Title: Re: Winning percentage question!
Post by: beans and weenies on July 24, 2012, 03:27:31 PM
30% ?........quit picking Dan Kennedy and Bruce Sturgeon and you numbers will improve!  ;D

 rflmao1
Title: Re: Winning percentage question!
Post by: beans and weenies on July 24, 2012, 03:28:33 PM
I forgot to mention my buddy Pezzy doodles SWEPT the card on pace night, I know he had the pick 5

and I think both pick 4's and I don't know if he played the pick 6.   bowdown
bowdown bowdown
Title: Re: Winning percentage question!
Post by: tonyb147 on July 27, 2012, 03:36:32 PM

I know "spot betting" I was proobably 80+ percent and some of those winners were good odds but that

might be one race a week. I have gone weeks tho just casual betting without a winner.
I have to agree with Skipper. If you ignore price and just play to win I think you can get in the 70-80% area. Doesn't mean your roi will be good if they're all 1/5.

My track is M1.
Friday I'll take two:
Race 2 #1 entry and Race 3 #4
Saturday I'll take two more:
Race 3 #3 and Race 10 #4
Lets give it a try.
Title: Re: Winning percentage question!
Post by: jug on July 27, 2012, 07:38:56 PM
In my pursuit to win the bet and pick over 70% I have already hit a small bump!

A Virgil Morgan horse tonight you sat on the rail and never made a move!  4pezz2


Last night 1-1 with Semaj Sam at Scioto  $5.80

Tonight 0-1 with Moiras Bliss as my second winner of the night coming up in a couple minutes at Nfld!
Title: Re: Winning percentage question!
Post by: Just Saying on July 28, 2012, 07:22:16 AM
I'm not a gambler, by nature, so I can enjoy watching a 12 race card without betting.(If they don't run out of beer) Hanging out with the likes of Carless Hal, Jug, The Family Pezz, Chicago Jazz, Yeah Baby, noc, Tony B, Amy Hollar, Beans & Weenies, Bettor, Overdover, Mr B, Cashman, Race Track Phil, and countless others is just a hoot. Best folks on the planet.

If I do bet I usually play a 4 horse tri-box for $1. I've hit several of those over the years and ended up ahead, though I don't know the %. I pick the 3 that should be in it, then look for some odds value for my 4th pick. I always enjoy watching a good race card at the track, versus watching it on the tube.
Title: Re: Winning percentage question!
Post by: Danville on July 28, 2012, 07:56:31 AM
It has always been my understanding that the best cappers have about a 33% strike rate.

Then we all know about the infamous capper named " nickels " who wins 98% of the time.

The "infamous" one been on a losing streak it would appear ??
Title: Re: Winning percentage question!
Post by: The Skipper on July 28, 2012, 12:22:17 PM
I'm not a gambler, by nature, so I can enjoy watching a 12 race card without betting.(If they don't run out of beer) Hanging out with the likes of Carless Hal, Jug, The Family Pezz, Chicago Jazz, Yeah Baby, noc, Tony B, Amy Hollar, Beans & Weenies, Bettor, Overdover, Mr B, Cashman, Race Track Phil, and countless others is just a hoot. Best folks on the planet.

If I do bet I usually play a 4 horse tri-box for $1. I've hit several of those over the years and ended up ahead, though I don't know the %. I pick the 3 that should be in it, then look for some odds value for my 4th pick. I always enjoy watching a good race card at the track, versus watching it on the tube.

Sure leave me off your list, guess I'm only good for doing your chores while you watch the cooler  4pezz2
Title: Re: Winning percentage question!
Post by: cashman on July 28, 2012, 12:39:59 PM
Sure leave me off your list, guess I'm only good for doing your chores while you watch the cooler  4pezz2

 rflmao1

Title: Re: Winning percentage question!
Post by: AmyHollar on July 28, 2012, 01:29:31 PM
 rflmao1


I'm not a gambler either but with out you all I couldn't be enjoying these great Adios races from my deck......so thank you.  redrose
Title: Re: Winning percentage question!
Post by: pezz97 on July 28, 2012, 01:32:33 PM
Sure leave me off your list, guess I'm only good for doing your chores while you watch the cooler  4pezz2
rflmao1 rflmao1 rflmao1

We Love hanging with you at the track, especially when someone tries to sit at your table at the pace  rflmao1
Title: Re: Winning percentage question!
Post by: The Skipper on July 29, 2012, 07:50:04 AM
rflmao1 rflmao1 rflmao1

We Love hanging with you at the track, especially when someone tries to sit at your table at the pace  rflmao1

Hey I almost let that guy with 2 wooden legs sit there but that bunch of punks was about to get a

boot up their shoot.  noway Of course the 3 beautiful ladies were not at my table to keep the

riff raff away   slaphead
Title: Re: Winning percentage question!
Post by: tonyb147 on July 29, 2012, 08:01:53 AM
Just got done having a discussion with one of my track buddies and we disagreed.


If you concentrate on only one track (your best one) and made a win only bet on your top play.....what percentage would you expect to pick?

I have to agree with Skipper. If you ignore price and just play to win I think you can get in the 70-80% area. Doesn't mean your roi will be good if they're all 1/5.

My track is M1.
Friday I'll take two:
Race 2 #1 entry and Race 3 #4
Saturday I'll take two more:
Race 3 #3 and Race 10 #4
Lets give it a try.

4 for 4

Keep this up and people will start calling me "dimes" or something.

 rflmao1
Title: Re: Winning percentage question!
Post by: The Skipper on July 29, 2012, 08:36:45 AM
4 for 4

Keep this up and people will start calling me "dimes" or something.

 rflmao1

Nice try little buddy but it'll take a LOT to get rid of the "Gilligan" moniker  rflmao1 rflmao1 rflmao1
Title: Re: Winning percentage question!
Post by: Just Saying on July 29, 2012, 01:07:52 PM
Sure leave me off your list, guess I'm only good for doing your chores while you watch the cooler  4pezz2
Shut up you big crybaby! No wonder my Bride fired you on the 1st day. (she scares me too)
 rflmao1 rflmao1 rflmao1 rflmao1
Title: Re: Winning percentage question!
Post by: The Skipper on July 30, 2012, 10:19:47 AM
Shut up you big crybaby! No wonder my Bride fired you on the 1st day. (she scares me too)
 rflmao1 rflmao1 rflmao1 rflmao1

 rflmao1 rflmao1 rflmao1 And your bride don't scare me at all, I like it when she tells me what to do  :-*
Title: Re: Winning percentage question!
Post by: Just Saying on July 30, 2012, 11:57:56 AM
rflmao1 rflmao1 rflmao1 And your bride don't scare me at all, I like it when she tells me what to do  :-*
rflmao1