How Did The Morning Lines Fared For 2011

[sea biscuit]

Stats provided by veteran harness statistician Ray2000 at Pace Advantage.

Track          Races   Hits..   Strik. ROI
TGDN.......   458   171   37%   -2%
VD....   712   231   32%   -2%
GRVR.......   589   238   40%   -6%
PRC...   573   183   32%   -8%
BR....   1106   418   38%   -9%
STGA.......   1670   652   39%   -10%
BTVA.......   744   251   34%   -10%
FRD...   475   172   36%   -11%
HP.....   519   186   36%   -11%
NP.....   207   68   33%   -12%
NOR..   596   217   36%   -12%
HOP....   586   175   30%   -13%
INDY..   561   180   32%   -13%
DD....   1652   630   38%   -15%
Big M   ........722   242   34%   -15%
CALX   ........982   334   34%   -15%
FHLD.   1060   425   40%   -15%
PPK....   1203   399   33%   -16%
HAR..   1218   465   38%   -16%
WDB.   1142   365   32%   -17%
MOH..   761   241   32%   -19%
BMLP   ........910   296   33%   -19%
SCD..   428   144   34%   -19%
MR....   2168   818   38%   -20%
MEA..   2322   727   31%   -20%
RIDC.   1619   537   33%   -20%
MAY...   962   334   35%   -20%
NFLD.   2383   901   38%   -20%
PCD...   1732   567   33%   -21%
FLMD.   1765   602   34%   -21%
WR...   900   316   35%   -21%
YR.....   2695   910   34%   -22%
OD....   196   59   30%   -22%
CHST.   1763   542   31%   -23%
CNL...   130   38   29%   -27%
RP.....   279   79   28%   -27%
GEOD.......   784   235   30%   -28%
LEX....   145   50   34%   -37%

[Jeremy]

just making it a little easier to follow

Track  Races  Hits  Strk    ROI
TGDN     458   171   37%    -2%
VD..     712   231   32%    -2%
GRVR     589   238   40%    -6%
PRC      573   183   32%    -8%
BR      1106   418   38%    -9%
STGA    1670   652   39%   -10%
BTVA     744   251   34%   -10%
FRD      475   172   36%   -11%
HP       519   186   36%   -11%
NP       207    68   33%   -12%
NOR      596   217   36%   -12%
HOP      586   175   30%   -13%
INDY     561   180   32%   -13%
DD      1652   630   38%   -15%
Big M    722   242   34%   -15%
CALX     982   334   34%   -15%
FHLD    1060   425   40%   -15%
PPK     1203   399   33%   -16%
HAR     1218   465   38%   -16%
WDB     1142   365   32%   -17%
MOH      761   241   32%   -19%
BMLP     910   296   33%   -19%
SCD      428   144   34%   -19%
MR      2168   818   38%   -20%
MEA     2322   727   31%   -20%
RIDC    1619   537   33%   -20%
MAY      962   334   35%   -20%
NFLD    2383   901   38%   -20%
PCD     1732   567   33%   -21%
FLMD    1765   602   34%   -21%
WR       900   316   35%   -21%
YR      2695   910   34%   -22%
OD       196    59   30%   -22%
CHST    1763   542   31%   -23%
CNL      130    38   29%   -27%
RP       279    79   28%   -27%
GEOD     784   235   30%   -28%
LEX      145    50   34%   -37%

[sea biscuit]

just making it a little easier to follow

Track  Races  Hits  Strk    ROI
TGDN     458   171   37%    -2%
VD..     712   231   32%    -2%
GRVR     589   238   40%    -6%
PRC      573   183   32%    -8%
BR      1106   418   38%    -9%
STGA    1670   652   39%   -10%
BTVA     744   251   34%   -10%
FRD      475   172   36%   -11%
HP       519   186   36%   -11%
NP       207    68   33%   -12%
NOR      596   217   36%   -12%
HOP      586   175   30%   -13%
INDY     561   180   32%   -13%
DD      1652   630   38%   -15%
Big M    722   242   34%   -15%
CALX     982   334   34%   -15%
FHLD    1060   425   40%   -15%
PPK     1203   399   33%   -16%
HAR     1218   465   38%   -16%
WDB     1142   365   32%   -17%
MOH      761   241   32%   -19%
BMLP     910   296   33%   -19%
SCD      428   144   34%   -19%
MR      2168   818   38%   -20%
MEA     2322   727   31%   -20%
RIDC    1619   537   33%   -20%
MAY      962   334   35%   -20%
NFLD    2383   901   38%   -20%
PCD     1732   567   33%   -21%
FLMD    1765   602   34%   -21%
WR       900   316   35%   -21%
YR      2695   910   34%   -22%
OD       196    59   30%   -22%
CHST    1763   542   31%   -23%
CNL      130    38   29%   -27%
RP       279    79   28%   -27%
GEOD     784   235   30%   -28%
LEX      145    50   34%   -37%

Wow!! How did you do that?

I tried three times and I still came up with those jumbled figures.

Thanks.

[Jeremy]

At what percentage do you stop giving credit to the ML odds maker for getting it right, and blame the race secretary for making too many races with an obvious winner ?


Switched the font to courier and made all the spaces even between the track and races

[mo doc n]

At what percentage do you stop giving credit to the ML odds maker for getting it right, and blame the race secretary for making too many races with an obvious winner ?


Switched the font to courier and made all the spaces even between the track and races

The only thing I use the morning line is to check the first couple of minutes wagering to see where the early money is going or money bet by people who wouldn't be able to make their wager on time so they made it early.

It means very little in the overall scheme of things JMO.

[Jeremy]

The only thing I use the morning line is to check the first couple of minutes wagering to see where the early money is going or money bet by people who wouldn't be able to make their wager on time so they made it early.

It means very little in the overall scheme of things JMO.

For awhile the 2-1 ML at Northfield would never win, almost like it was a jinx but it has won quite often lately.

[beans and weenies]

So in other words ... Just put your money down on whatever equation works for you 

[sea biscuit]

So in other words ... Just put your money down on whatever equation works for you 

Tross likes those 7-1 ML horses at Woodbine.

[NIATROSS]

Tross likes those 7-1 ML horses at Woodbine.

Exactly !   

The same guy made a 2yo ft 6-5 ML in her 1st start who ran off the board.

[The Giss]

The Morning Line IS NOT supposed to pick winners. It is supposed to align with the way the public will back horses. An accurate stat would be how many ML faves went off as the public choice. THAT is the sign of an ML oddsmaker doing a good job, He/she IS NOT supposed to be a handicapper.

[Jeremy]

The Morning Line IS NOT supposed to pick winners. It is supposed to align with the way the public will back horses. An accurate stat would be how many ML faves went off as the public choice. THAT is the sign of an ML oddsmaker doing a good job, He/she IS NOT supposed to be a handicapper.

If the ML maker was doing his/her job wouldn't (s)he be accurately stating who the bettors make the favorite and therefore should have similar results ?

[Elgin]

Anecdotally, one of the worst morning lines of the season was when the odds maker made Chapter Seven 8-1 in the BC elimination at Woodbine. He was coming off a very impressive crush job against Broad Bahn in Lexington and had the three post. Daylon was made the even money favorite out of the seven and Dejarmbro was rated at 6-5. As it was Chapter Seven, who won the race, went off at 4-5, Daylon was 9-5 and Dejarmbro was 5-2.

In the Battle of Brandywine at Chester, Custard was third choice in the ML at 9-2, followed by High Noon at 5-1 and Big Bad John at 10-1. BBJ finished third at 5-2; Custard finished out at 10-1, and High Noon finished out at 35-1.

[sea biscuit]

The best way of going about it is to make your own oddsline. If not for all the horses at least for the 2 or 3 main contenders in the race. Then compare the tote board odds to your odds to see who might be an overlay. A horse you have made a solid even favorite on your odds line and going off at 2-1 or 5/2 would be an overlay for me.

A few years ago I wrote a piece on how to make your own oddsline and posted it on some forums.

Let me dig it up and repost it over here.

[The Giss]

If the ML maker was doing his/her job wouldn't (s)he be accurately stating who the bettors make the favorite and therefore should have similar results ?

The two- winning and being the ML fave are not related. Results would likely be similar- for instance at Nfld, the ML maker, according tot he table, had 38% winners, while the public is somewhat over 45%

[tonyb147]

The Morning Line IS NOT supposed to pick winners. It is supposed to align with the way the public will back horses. An accurate stat would be how many ML faves went off as the public choice. THAT is the sign of an ML oddsmaker doing a good job, He/she IS NOT supposed to be a handicapper.

Absolutely agree, although sometimes the ml person doesn't know which horse has gotten the "special" bucket of feed. 

Anecdotally, one of the worst morning lines of the season was when the odds maker made Chapter Seven 8-1 in the BC elimination at Woodbine. He was coming off a very impressive crush job against Broad Bahn in Lexington and had the three post. Daylon was made the even money favorite out of the seven and Dejarmbro was rated at 6-5. As it was Chapter Seven, who won the race, went off at 4-5, Daylon was 9-5 and Dejarmbro was 5-2.

Perfect example of how bad the WEG person/people are at putting together the ml. And to be so far off in the BC is inexcusable to me.