In The Sulky Forum
General Category => General Harness Racing Discussion => Topic started by: sea biscuit on December 25, 2011, 05:56:02 PM
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Stats provided by veteran harness statistician Ray2000 at Pace Advantage. thumbsup thumbsup
Track Races Hits.. Strik. ROI
TGDN....... 458 171 37% -2%
VD.... 712 231 32% -2%
GRVR....... 589 238 40% -6%
PRC... 573 183 32% -8%
BR.... 1106 418 38% -9%
STGA....... 1670 652 39% -10%
BTVA....... 744 251 34% -10%
FRD... 475 172 36% -11%
HP..... 519 186 36% -11%
NP..... 207 68 33% -12%
NOR.. 596 217 36% -12%
HOP.... 586 175 30% -13%
INDY.. 561 180 32% -13%
DD.... 1652 630 38% -15%
Big M ........722 242 34% -15%
CALX ........982 334 34% -15%
FHLD. 1060 425 40% -15%
PPK.... 1203 399 33% -16%
HAR.. 1218 465 38% -16%
WDB. 1142 365 32% -17%
MOH.. 761 241 32% -19%
BMLP ........910 296 33% -19%
SCD.. 428 144 34% -19%
MR.... 2168 818 38% -20%
MEA.. 2322 727 31% -20%
RIDC. 1619 537 33% -20%
MAY... 962 334 35% -20%
NFLD. 2383 901 38% -20%
PCD... 1732 567 33% -21%
FLMD. 1765 602 34% -21%
WR... 900 316 35% -21%
YR..... 2695 910 34% -22%
OD.... 196 59 30% -22%
CHST. 1763 542 31% -23%
CNL... 130 38 29% -27%
RP..... 279 79 28% -27%
GEOD....... 784 235 30% -28%
LEX.... 145 50 34% -37%
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just making it a little easier to follow
Track Races Hits Strk ROI
TGDN 458 171 37% -2%
VD.. 712 231 32% -2%
GRVR 589 238 40% -6%
PRC 573 183 32% -8%
BR 1106 418 38% -9%
STGA 1670 652 39% -10%
BTVA 744 251 34% -10%
FRD 475 172 36% -11%
HP 519 186 36% -11%
NP 207 68 33% -12%
NOR 596 217 36% -12%
HOP 586 175 30% -13%
INDY 561 180 32% -13%
DD 1652 630 38% -15%
Big M 722 242 34% -15%
CALX 982 334 34% -15%
FHLD 1060 425 40% -15%
PPK 1203 399 33% -16%
HAR 1218 465 38% -16%
WDB 1142 365 32% -17%
MOH 761 241 32% -19%
BMLP 910 296 33% -19%
SCD 428 144 34% -19%
MR 2168 818 38% -20%
MEA 2322 727 31% -20%
RIDC 1619 537 33% -20%
MAY 962 334 35% -20%
NFLD 2383 901 38% -20%
PCD 1732 567 33% -21%
FLMD 1765 602 34% -21%
WR 900 316 35% -21%
YR 2695 910 34% -22%
OD 196 59 30% -22%
CHST 1763 542 31% -23%
CNL 130 38 29% -27%
RP 279 79 28% -27%
GEOD 784 235 30% -28%
LEX 145 50 34% -37%
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just making it a little easier to follow
Track Races Hits Strk ROI
TGDN 458 171 37% -2%
VD.. 712 231 32% -2%
GRVR 589 238 40% -6%
PRC 573 183 32% -8%
BR 1106 418 38% -9%
STGA 1670 652 39% -10%
BTVA 744 251 34% -10%
FRD 475 172 36% -11%
HP 519 186 36% -11%
NP 207 68 33% -12%
NOR 596 217 36% -12%
HOP 586 175 30% -13%
INDY 561 180 32% -13%
DD 1652 630 38% -15%
Big M 722 242 34% -15%
CALX 982 334 34% -15%
FHLD 1060 425 40% -15%
PPK 1203 399 33% -16%
HAR 1218 465 38% -16%
WDB 1142 365 32% -17%
MOH 761 241 32% -19%
BMLP 910 296 33% -19%
SCD 428 144 34% -19%
MR 2168 818 38% -20%
MEA 2322 727 31% -20%
RIDC 1619 537 33% -20%
MAY 962 334 35% -20%
NFLD 2383 901 38% -20%
PCD 1732 567 33% -21%
FLMD 1765 602 34% -21%
WR 900 316 35% -21%
YR 2695 910 34% -22%
OD 196 59 30% -22%
CHST 1763 542 31% -23%
CNL 130 38 29% -27%
RP 279 79 28% -27%
GEOD 784 235 30% -28%
LEX 145 50 34% -37%
Wow!! How did you do that?
I tried three times and I still came up with those jumbled figures.
Thanks. thumbsup thumbsup
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At what percentage do you stop giving credit to the ML odds maker for getting it right, and blame the race secretary for making too many races with an obvious winner ?
Switched the font to courier and made all the spaces even between the track and races
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At what percentage do you stop giving credit to the ML odds maker for getting it right, and blame the race secretary for making too many races with an obvious winner ?
Switched the font to courier and made all the spaces even between the track and races
The only thing I use the morning line is to check the first couple of minutes wagering to see where the early money is going or money bet by people who wouldn't be able to make their wager on time so they made it early.
It means very little in the overall scheme of things JMO.
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The only thing I use the morning line is to check the first couple of minutes wagering to see where the early money is going or money bet by people who wouldn't be able to make their wager on time so they made it early.
It means very little in the overall scheme of things JMO.
For awhile the 2-1 ML at Northfield would never win, almost like it was a jinx but it has won quite often lately.
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So in other words ... Just put your money down on whatever equation works for you rflmao1
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So in other words ... Just put your money down on whatever equation works for you rflmao1
Tross likes those 7-1 ML horses at Woodbine. idunno
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Tross likes those 7-1 ML horses at Woodbine. idunno
Exactly ! thumbsup thumbsup
The same guy made a 2yo ft 6-5 ML in her 1st start who ran off the board. rflmao1 rflmao1 rflmao1
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The Morning Line IS NOT supposed to pick winners. It is supposed to align with the way the public will back horses. An accurate stat would be how many ML faves went off as the public choice. THAT is the sign of an ML oddsmaker doing a good job, He/she IS NOT supposed to be a handicapper.
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The Morning Line IS NOT supposed to pick winners. It is supposed to align with the way the public will back horses. An accurate stat would be how many ML faves went off as the public choice. THAT is the sign of an ML oddsmaker doing a good job, He/she IS NOT supposed to be a handicapper.
If the ML maker was doing his/her job wouldn't (s)he be accurately stating who the bettors make the favorite and therefore should have similar results ?
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Anecdotally, one of the worst morning lines of the season was when the odds maker made Chapter Seven 8-1 in the BC elimination at Woodbine. He was coming off a very impressive crush job against Broad Bahn in Lexington and had the three post. Daylon was made the even money favorite out of the seven and Dejarmbro was rated at 6-5. As it was Chapter Seven, who won the race, went off at 4-5, Daylon was 9-5 and Dejarmbro was 5-2.
In the Battle of Brandywine at Chester, Custard was third choice in the ML at 9-2, followed by High Noon at 5-1 and Big Bad John at 10-1. BBJ finished third at 5-2; Custard finished out at 10-1, and High Noon finished out at 35-1.
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The best way of going about it is to make your own oddsline. If not for all the horses at least for the 2 or 3 main contenders in the race. Then compare the tote board odds to your odds to see who might be an overlay. A horse you have made a solid even favorite on your odds line and going off at 2-1 or 5/2 would be an overlay for me.
A few years ago I wrote a piece on how to make your own oddsline and posted it on some forums.
Let me dig it up and repost it over here.
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If the ML maker was doing his/her job wouldn't (s)he be accurately stating who the bettors make the favorite and therefore should have similar results ?
The two- winning and being the ML fave are not related. Results would likely be similar- for instance at Nfld, the ML maker, according tot he table, had 38% winners, while the public is somewhat over 45%
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The Morning Line IS NOT supposed to pick winners. It is supposed to align with the way the public will back horses. An accurate stat would be how many ML faves went off as the public choice. THAT is the sign of an ML oddsmaker doing a good job, He/she IS NOT supposed to be a handicapper.
Absolutely agree, although sometimes the ml person doesn't know which horse has gotten the "special" bucket of feed. dorkusinterruptus
Anecdotally, one of the worst morning lines of the season was when the odds maker made Chapter Seven 8-1 in the BC elimination at Woodbine. He was coming off a very impressive crush job against Broad Bahn in Lexington and had the three post. Daylon was made the even money favorite out of the seven and Dejarmbro was rated at 6-5. As it was Chapter Seven, who won the race, went off at 4-5, Daylon was 9-5 and Dejarmbro was 5-2.
Perfect example of how bad the WEG person/people are at putting together the ml. And to be so far off in the BC is inexcusable to me.
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If the ML maker was doing his/her job wouldn't (s)he be accurately stating who the bettors make the favorite and therefore should have similar results ?
thumbsup thumbsup thumbsup