Derby Picks

[careless hal]

This is my top 6.  What say you?

1. Nyquist
2.  Exaggerator
3. Brody's Cause
4. Oscar Nominated
5 Gun Runner
6. Outwork

[RocknRoll]

Oscar Nominated will not be on any of my tickets unless I have an all. Turf horse with turf breeding that's never been on the dirt before, and gets in via a polytrack win. Even the Ramsey's seem to think he has no shot but wanted to get Kitten's Joy some more recognition.

[NIATROSS]

I do believe Animal Kingdom with strong turf breeding in his 1st race on the dirt won the Ky Derby in 2012

The CD dirt historically has been kind to horses w turf breeding

[NIATROSS]

This is my top 6.  What say you?

1. Nyquist
2.  Exaggerator
3. Brody's Cause
4. Oscar Nominated
5 Gun Runner
6. Outwork

Hard to toss Nyquist off any list.The slop may have really helped EX last time out.
I still have not tossed Mohaymen.Im going wait to see all the works before making a list

[RocknRoll]

I do believe Animal Kingdom with strong turf breeding in his 1st race on the dirt won the Ky Derby in 2012

The CD dirt historically has been kind to horses w turf breeding

Animal Kingdom >>>>>>>> Oscar Nominated

[RocknRoll]

Hard to toss Nyquist off any list.The slop may have really helped EX last time out.
I still have not tossed Mohaymen.Im going wait to see all the works before making a list

I can't get rid of Mohaymen either. He has worked really well at Churchill and if he just hated the surface and wide trip, he might be able to rebound.

[NIATROSS]

Mohays  last work before the Derby looked real good to me

I do believe  Oscar's win at TP was the same race Animal won before his Derby


Down to post draw next week for me.Here's hoping Baffert ONeill and Pletcher all draw 1-2-3

[RocknRoll]

Mohays  last work before the Derby looked real good to me

I do believe  Oscar's win at TP was the same race Animal won before his Derby


Down to post draw next week for me.Here's hoping Baffert ONeill and Pletcher all draw 1-2-3

Mohaymen has really seem to like the Churchill surface, he was a bit crazy today jumping in the air before his work started which is weird since previously they said he always looks asleep out there.

AK at least had a 94 beyer in the Spiral, I just can't like a horse that has a career 82 beyer like Oscar has. I'm not so sure he is even a good enough turf horse. 

It seems like the field has a lot of slower horses this year, more than normal. Could just be me.

[NIATROSS]

82?   

That is terrible I had not looked at his pp's yet.Hard to believe he can jump at least 20 pts to win.
You areright  it does look like a lot of slow horses this yr.No horse has really impressed me this yr.If it comes real wet it could be bombs away

[careless hal]

I don't think Oscar will win, do think he will do better than what many think.  I have been in Nyquist's corner for some time and have yet to think he can be flat out beaten.  Of course with the big field he could easily get hammered or even stumble.  I had no doubt he would beat Moyhamen  in Florida.  Of course even I didn't think Moyhamen would throw in such a stinker.

[RocknRoll]

I don't think Oscar will win, do think he will do better than what many think.  I have been in Nyquist's corner for some time and have yet to think he can be flat out beaten.  Of course with the big field he could easily get hammered or even stumble.  I had no doubt he would beat Moyhamen  in Florida.  Of course even I didn't think Moyhamen would throw in such a stinker.

This last part is what makes me wonder about his last race. It wasn't that he just got smoked by Nyquist, but he lost to a horse that he buried twice in a row and another horse that had just broke his maiden in his 5th try.

[NIATROSS]

Looks like running a maiden in the Derby dont look so good right about now.
Danzing Candy just got hosed w post 20

[careless hal]

OK have broken down Derby:
First, I don't use Beyer speed figures.  I use Bris Net.  Just have done better with that. To each his own.

Tier 1
#13 Nyquist
#11 Exaggerator

Tier 2
#5 Gun Runner
#9  Destin
#3 Creator

Tier 3  14  Moyhaymen
      #7 Oscar nominated,#8 Lani
Insane longfshot   #20 Danzing Candy

Good luck to all playing.

[pezz97]

Race #2    05/07/2016
Churchill Downs
$0.5 Pick-4
# 1,2,3,8
WT # 1,7,10,11
WT # 1,11
WT # 3,4,9,10,12
$80.00

[pezz97]

Okay that wasn't any good let's try the pick 5 in race 3


Race #3 05/07/2016
Churchill Downs
$0.5 Pick-5
# 1,7,10,11
WT # 1,11
WT # 3,4,9,10,12
WT # 1
WT # 1,3,6,8
$80.00