White Sox projected to win 90 games, division by USA Today

[careless hal]

White Sox projected to win 90 games, division by USA Today

 Written By Daryl Van Schouwen Posted: 02/15/2016, 06:53pm
 


 White Sox general manager Rick Hahn has assembled a team picked to win the American League Central by USA Today. | Nam Y. Huh/AP


Let’s hope general manager Rick Hahn didn’t read USA Today’s prediction of 90 victories and an American League Central title for the White Sox and pull an offer for former Cubs outfielder Dexter Fowler off the table.

The USA Today forecast, published a few days in advance of spring training, was the latest and boldest in a recent stream of national love being showered on the Sox, who didn’t exactly blow the doors off the offseason. They made a few nice moves to improve their roster this winter, but not like they did last offseason.
The Sox will take any favorable publicity they can get — there are tickets to be sold — but they also want to approach the season as underdogs. After all, they have finished a combined 62 games under .500 in the last three seasons and have finished with a winning record once in the last five.

They have laid low in their pursuit of the switch-hitting Fowler, a leadoff man who would make a splendid finishing touch on a roster and lineup begging for improved on-base percentage, better baserunning and capable outfield defense.

There are reasons to like the Sox’ chances and reasons for them to make one more move. With bargain-priced right-hander Mat Latos (one year, $3 million) plugged in as the No. 4 starter behind Chris Sale, Jose Quintana and Carlos Rodon and overpaid-but-still-adequate John Danks at No. 5, the Sox’ starting rotation is top-10 material, if not better. Plus, Hahn rebuilt the bullpen, which was deplorable in 2014, into a unit with depth and no weak link.



A year ago, the Sox had miscalculated by thinking their pitching and lineup would offset a suspect infield of Conor Gillaspie, Alexei Ramirez, Micah Johnson and Jose Abreu. After pulling off trades for All-Star third baseman Todd Frazier and second baseman Brett Lawrie and plugging good-glove shortstop Tyler Saladino between them, the infield defense is sound.

But here’s the rub: Behind them, an outfield of Melky Cabrera, Adam Eaton and Avisail Garcia is a defensive weakness the pitching staff will fret over. That’s where Fowler comes in. Put him on a corner or put him in center and move Eaton to left, and the Sox improve on a number of fronts on both sides of the ball.

The Cabrera-Eaton-Garcia unit ranked 26th in outfield WAR (wins above replacement) among the 30 major-league teams last season. That’s not the stuff 90-victory teams are made of.

Of course, such a move likely would push the 24-year-old Garcia, whose upside and downside are debated long and hard among Sox decision-makers, into a platoon role or out of the mix.

‘‘These guys are tough to scout, mid-20s and on the fence,’’ a veteran AL scout said. ‘‘We have seen guys like this flip the switch and instantly tap their ability. We have also seen them never get one lick better. At 24, [Garcia] still has another couple of years to prove it, but the Sox need at least average every-day production right now. They can’t afford to wait a year or two.’’

Fowler, who will turn 30 next month, probably would cost the Sox around $20 million over two seasons, plus the No. 28 overall draft pick. But they still would have two top-50 picks, including No. 10 overall, as they continue to make inroads in the international market.

The Baltimore Orioles also are interested in Fowler and are said to be willing to part with the 29th overall pick as compensation.

Pitchers and catchers report Friday.

Follow me on Twitter @CST_soxvan.

Email: dvanschouwen@suntimes.com




 
 


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[KEVS]

I agree with everything in the article except Jon Danks being
adequate. He simply blows. 2 pitches FB @ 88 mph and
a change - up that gets hit 450 feet every game.  7 -15 with a 4.71 ERA is not adequate.  Fowler would be a nice defensive add, hard to believe 20 Million for 2 years for a very average player in baseball when a standout football player like Matt Forte is looking at 8-9 Million for the same length contract.       

[old and slow]

Just wondering, Hal.  Did USA Today pick a National League team to win more than 90? Like 11 more than 90? 

If so, what team would that be?

[KEVS]

I believe that would be the C.U.B.S.   Chicago's Underachieving Baseball Squad. What else do you call a team that got swept in the playoffs by a team they swept in the regular season. Go Mets !   

[careless hal]

Just wondering, Hal.  Did USA Today pick a National League team to win more than 90? Like 11 more than 90? 

If so, what team would that be?

I don't want to jinx them.  They have enough curses on them already. 

[LVGaryD]

[old and slow]

I believe that would be the C.U.B.S.   Chicago's Underachieving Baseball Squad. What else do you call a team that got swept in the playoffs by a team they swept in the regular season. Go Mets !

Brutal, just brutal. True, but brutal.

I don't want to jinx them.  They have enough curses on them already. 

I hope you have a lighweight Sox jacket.  You'll need it in May

[Bdttitus]

Having KC in there division means about a 2%chance of winning the division. KC is the best team in the AL, just a very balanced team that can beat in so many ways.

[The Skipper]

Brutal, just brutal. True, but brutal.I hope you have a lighweight Sox jacket.  You'll need it in May

I heard that Hal bled cubbie Blue until Obama got elected and Hal found out Obama loves the Sox 

[Jeremy]

I heard that Hal bled cubbie Blue until Obama got elected and Hal found out Obama loves the Sox 

I read that scrolling across the bottom of MSNBC

[LVGaryD]

I read that scrolling across the bottom of MSNBC

[careless hal]

Having KC in there division means about a 2%chance of winning the division. KC is the best team in the AL, just a very balanced team that can beat in so many ways.

   
Would be shocked if KC wins Al Central

New projections peg World Series champion Royals for last place

Israel Fehr
By Israel Fehr
February 16, 2016 11:45 AM
 
Big League Stew


..
View photo
.PECOTA still isn't a fan of the Royals. (AP Photo)
PECOTA still isn't a fan of the Royals. (AP Photo)
Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA projection system still doesn't respect the Kansas City Royals.

The reigning World Series champions are headed for a 76-86 record, according to the PECOTA projections released Tuesday, which would put them in last place in the AL Central, well behind the 92-win Cleveland Indians. These data-driven projections — developed by Nate Silver in 2003 and published annually by Baseball Prospectus — forecast every player's season based on their own past and comparable career paths, then run all the numbers to create a win-loss record for each team.

This isn't the first time PECOTA has come in low on Kansas City. Coming off a World Series appearance in 2014, the PECOTA prediction was for a 72-win season. Of course, the Royals won 95 games in 2015, the most in the AL, on their way to winning the title. So, what gives?

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Baseball Prospectus' editor-in-chief Sam Miller explains that not one of the site's analysts believes Kansas City will finish with fewer than 80 wins:


Our staff didn’t want it. It’s not just that when we polled our writers for their own Royals predictions—before PECOTA had been run—not one of them went as low as 76. It’s not even that not one of them went lower than 80, or that only one of 27 responses was lower than 85, or that the plurality response was 90, or that the average was 88. It’s this: When I asked a follow-up question a few days later—“If I told you PECOTA projects them to win 76 games this year, does your answer change?”—the response was overwhelmingly “nah.” In fact… counting them out… 73 percent of staff said it didn’t change their answer at all. As one put it: “No, because the projections just seem to not like the Royals.”

Miller also attempts to put into context exactly why the projection formula consistently underestimates Kansas City, including what makes players like Wade Davis, Lorenzo Cain and Edinson Volquez difficult to project and their case as potential outliers. It's worth a read.

We saw last year how this Royals team thrived off these sort of slights and tepid predictions and used it as motivation. Will it be the same this time around? Well, they're much easier to dismiss when you're the defending champions

[careless hal]

I heard that Hal bled cubbie Blue until Obama got elected and Hal found out Obama loves the Sox 

Well I never was a Cubs fan, but Obama's love of the White Sox shows that there is some good in everyone, even a Muslim communist traitor.!

[old and slow]

I read that scrolling across the bottom of MSNBC

I didn't believe it until it was a Fox News Alert