Meadowlands Pace

[Elgin]

Randy Waples has been referencing Thinking Out Loud

[maywoodmaniac]

Elgin, you make some good points.  I think Morrill would be nuts to leave.  Don't think he'll make the lead so if finds a hole early, he's going to use a bunch of energy only to get shuffled. Simply Business was better with Lasix, but how many horses have made winning the Pace their first win of the year?

As much as I think Waples needs to attach himself to Palone, Andy Miller needs to be on Waples' back. The Orange Crush, IMO, reacts differently when he's sitting behind a favorite.  Time To Roll won't be 9-5 this week so look for a more relaxed and heady drive.

Right now I'm thinking in no particular order it's between Heston BC, Sweet Lou, Thinking Out Loud and Time To Roll.  Anyone know what the weather's supposed to be like in NYC later tomorrow?

[Elgin]

Mid-seventies and dry.

Morrill will leave for position because that's what Allstar does. He's not as good as these but his early speed has been the equalizer for him. Tetrick didn't leave out of the eight in his NA Cup elimination and Allsatr was lost at the back of the pack throughout. If he leaves and doesn't find a parking spot, so be it. Can't see him following along at the back and beating this bunch. Can't see him beating them under any circumstances.

It seems that a lot of folks are down on Sweet Lou. I wonder how that will play out on the board?

[Just Saying]

I like Heston, Sweet Lou, Talking Out Loud, and Rockinroll Dance, in that order. But what the hell do I know... I never gamble anyway.

Should be a fun race to watch.

[CyberChamp]

Finally cracked open the program.  Here's what I'm thinking:

The auto-tosses:

TIME TO ROLL - Posted him and THINKING OUT LOUD as the live bombers in the NA Cup and they finished top two.  The post kills this one, however, and I doubt any of the inside speed will let this one get forward position early.

STATE TREASURER - No tactical speed and hasn't hit the board against these in last 4.  No reason that will change here.

ALLSTAR LEGEND - His last 4 races have been solid and he was making up ground on SWEET LOU at the end (then again, who wasn't).  Speed is his asset, but if this one makes the top, he will quickly be shuffled out of contention.

SIMPLY BUSINESS - This one woke up with lasix, but couldn't get up despite live cover.  He gapped that cover into the final turn and wasn't moving up that well late.  Can't see this one improving off that nor can I see him hitting the board.

The contenders:

SWEET LOU - Perhaps the elims were a tightener and the real "LOU" will show up in the final.  Recall that his big move in the NA Cup elims came on a speed favoring night and he was rewarded with a world record.  In the NA Cup final, however, the track was NOT favoring speed and that big move cost him the race.  That said, Palone probably realizes that there is a "chink in the armor" and that he will need to be more tactical this time around.  I think post 4 was a poor choice (again).  There is a good chance he will get away 5th or 6th and then try to brush to the front (again).  I don't think he can get away with speed popping the other contenders, not with the caliber of horses/drivers in here.  Speed has not been doing all that well at M1 of late, so I think he can lose.

A ROCKNROLL DANCE - He made a nice quarter move and exploded when he found room late.  His victory in the Hempt final shows that he is now on top of his game.  He couldn't have asked for a better post and I believe he quarter moves them again like he did in the elims and ends up again in the pocket behind SWEET LOU turning for home.  If they go 1:20 or better, I'm not sure if he'll have something to offer late, but he is sure to go a long way.

THINKING OUT LOUD - This one was overloaded late and should've gotten up if not for the interference.  He has shown that he's the real deal, but...Waples will have to deal with the post position.  Waples is not on his home turf and I doubt if he will show early speed here, which means he could face traffic trouble turning for home.  The Meadowlands Pace is known for its big speed and is not usually won by deep closers, so Waples will need to move early to have a chance.  I sense that Waples won't be overaggressive here and would be just thrilled to pick up a nice check.

PET ROCK - It's difficult to determine just how good he may be.  He won the Rooney and raced well in both NA Cup and Pace elims, but that break in the NA Cup finals cost him a real chance to prove his worth.  I think he will be close enough to pick up pieces late, but I'm not sure if he can beat these.

HESTON BLUE CHIP - This one is getting a lot of attention after his big win in the elims.  However, I look at that line and remember that he was going to get beat by THINKING OUT LOUD or BOLT THE DUER.  The former hooked wheels and the latter got the "duer" shut on him (which was a brilliant move by Tetrick).  Just how good is he?  We will find out.  I don't think he wins, however.

BOLT THE DUER - I think Macdonald is just happy to even make the final after last week's trip.  I don't think he will make the mistake of getting bottled up again.  I expect him to wait for the speed to settle and make a big move to the front.  At some point, he will hook up with A ROCKNROLL DANCE or SWEET LOU.  I think this colt is very talented and it would not surprise me to see him win.  He will definitely be on my pick4 ticket, but he will have to make his own racing luck to win this.

Here's what I'm going with:

If the track seems to be playing like it was tonight, I will go with A ROCKNROLL DANCE over BOLT THE DUER and THINKING OUT LOUD in the superfecta.  Underneath, I will use SWEET LOU, PET ROCK, HESTON BLUE CHIP, ALLSTAR LEGEND, and TIME TO ROLL.  I will play smaller tickets swapping A ROCKNROLL DANCE with BOLT THE DUER and THINKING OUT LOUD.

Don't get me wrong, I would love to see SWEET LOU win for his connections.  But I don't think the value play includes him on top or second.

Good luck guys!

[cashman]

I think Time to Roll  wins  hoping for 3 to 1.  Using Swwet Lou  HBC and Bolt the duer underneath.

[Elgin]

People Are Down on Sweet Lou, and Ron Burke
Doesn

[careless hal]

On my recent trip to Florida I visited the Wreck Bar, where  scenes from the film"Analyze This" were shot.  This has to be the most analyzed race of the year.  For the NA Cup, the overwhealming majority of the posters picked Sweet Lou in a romp.  Only a few posters picked against him. Now,many are off the bandwagon.  I have been searching picks and analysis far and wide. Respected cappers are picking horses I don't like at all.  Somebody picks every horse in the race!  This is why most of the 200 or so handicapping books I have read tell you not to play stakes races.  All the horses are good.  There is no super horse.  So that leaves us to figure out which of the hundreds of thousands of scenarios will play out.   I have always said capping is both a science and an art.  You can watch replays of every race by every horse pretty much.   I know the stats, but my final decision will be made on gut instinct.  ( right now I'm planning to bet maybe $50 on the race, that may go up or down depending on the odds. )  Good Luck!!!

[Dolfan]

I think Time to Roll  wins  hoping for 3 to 1. 

Too funny! 

Don't worry, you can get 3-1 all day at my window or anyone else's.

[Headpole Dave]

Yannick Gingras gets the job done. Great job to him and all of the connections, horse looked like a monster.

There was absolutely no outer flow, as everyone pulled and nobody went anywhere. Waples clogged everything up when he tried to two move.

[LVGaryD]

The one thing that I learned after the race is that A Rocknroll Dance raced for the first time in a Spider bike. That is a huge difference! I lover Yannick saying he had the horse set up to go to the top by not putting him there the last two starts.

Very tough to make up ground when the horse on top is coming home in 54 seconds. The horse that surprised me most was Pet Rock, who raced absolutely lights out.

I have to think Sweet Lou paced home in about 53.2 or very close. He is somewhat of a grinder and it took a while to get him in gear, but he raced much better this week than last week in my opinion.

Just a great race!

[maywoodmaniac]

Good call CyberChamp.  Gary, they mentioned the Spider bike in the post parade but don't you think they could have said something earlier?

IMO it was a weird race. What was Tetrick thinking with that drive?  He seemed to be in a fog after getting beat with American Jewel.  It's like trying to explain how your quarterback throws 4 picks in a game or how Verlander gave up 5 runs in the first inning of the All-Star game the other night.

I have a feeling this group of 3-year-olds won't have a standout and will take turns beating each other.

[CyberChamp]

IMO it was a weird race. What was Tetrick thinking with that drive?  He seemed to be in a fog after getting beat with American Jewel.  It's like trying to explain how your quarterback throws 4 picks in a game or how Verlander gave up 5 runs in the first inning of the All-Star game the other night.

 

Definitely a strange race.  I was surprised that no one wanted to mix it up early despite how well speed held tonight.  Also a strange night to see Sears go winless.

 

[careless hal]

Also a strange night to see Sears go winless.


That's OK.  He came in second when I needed him to!!!!
Sweet lou throws in another stinker in a big one.  Just another of a bunch of  nice 3 yr olds out there looking for a check.

Good job CC!

I guess those who picked Morrill's horse to win  were not as far off as I thought.  Didn't like his chances at all from that post. Wish I had used him in place of sweet Lou and I could have hit the super.

[tonyb147]

Hugely disappointed with my first trip to the Pace. Boring race but a great night overall as all of us came out ahead. The after party was........