M1 Jackpot Hi5: Good bet or not?

[CyberChamp]

Is the M1 Jackpot Hi5 a good bet or not?

Let's face it, if you have dreams of being the sole winner and therefore taking down the jackpot, good luck with that.  It's pretty clear that there are some deep pocket bettors taking a big swing at the jackpot, especially when the jackpot grows to levels greater than $10K.  More likely than not, any winning combination that we can come up with would likely be covered by one of those deep pocket players.  So if we can't win the jackpot, then why should we play it?

It's all about the numbers: risk vs. reward, investment vs. payoff, mathematical expectation, yada yada yada.

Let's look at some recent payouts:

1/29 R10: $3.6k (super paid $405)
1/29 R5: $2.6k (no carryover, super paid $743)
1/24 R13: $3.4k (super paid $161)
1/24 R5: $14k (one winner, super paid $197)
1/23 R12: $4.2k (super paid $251)
1/23 R5: $47k (one winner, super paid $564)
1/22 R10: $2k (super paid $57)
1/22 R5: $1.7k (super paid $276)

Clearly there are some outliers in here (i.e., jackpot winners) as well as other factors that have now changed (i.e., no longer 12 horse fields at 1-1/8 miles), but let's look at this closer.  Let's remove the jackpot winners and the no carryover races.

1/29 R10: $3.6k (super paid $405)        9X
1/24 R13: $3.4k (super paid $161)        20X
1/23 R12: $4.2k (super paid $251)        16X
1/22 R10: $2k (super paid $57)             35X
1/22 R5: $1.7k (super paid $276)          6X

Note that the hi5 paid anywhere form 6 times to 35 times the payout of the superfecta.  But wait, that's not "apples to apples" since the hi5 is a 20-cent play and the super is 10-cents.  So let's divide by two and say that the hi5 has paid between 3X and 17X the super payout.

Is this good or bad?  I guess it depends on whether you're getting the 3X or 17X.

Taking a closer look at the 3X, that happened to be a 12 horse field with 3 “autotosses” and the heavy chalk winning.  That might explain the low payout.

The other races above are 9 and 10 horse fields, meaning that there are only 5 or 6 horses remaining as potential 5th place finishers after you’ve connected on the first four finishers (i.e., the super).  That said, getting 4.5X, 10X, 8X and 17.5X of the super payout is actually favorable considering the percentage of the pool that is taken to fuel the jackpot.

Does the hi5 now look more attractive than the superfecta?  Based on the numbers above, I think so.  Also, I think there is a pretty good reason for why the numbers are in our favor: the jackpot.  Because winning the jackpot requires there to be a single winner, it is highly unlikely that a single bettor will play repeated combinations.  Even though they may have a solid feel for who will end up 1st, 2nd, and 3rd…they will likely not play any combination for more than 20-cents.  With supers, however, people might play for a dime, two dimes, 50 cents, a buck, and even multiple dollars per combination.  That said, with the jackpot, there will be more “wide” hi5 tickets, which will ensure a larger payout, even if the result ends up all chalk.

One last note is that the WEG jackpot hi5 isn’t as attractive.  Essentially, the higher takeout for the jackpot kills the ROI for this wager, making the superfecta a better play.  At Woodbine, I would rather hit the super for $0.60 to $1 than hit the hi5 for $0.20 (unless I'm the sole winner, of course).

Food for thought.

[The Skipper]

I really don't like it but to be honest I have played it twice, both times the 10th race and last night I needed

driving God Miller to get up for me to collect and if any of you were watching the horse that won the race

with Wm Mann driving opened up chalk ! I doubt I would have had a single ticket and I only spent like

96 bucks, but I know I would have made a nice little profit. I do like the part of other people building it

up giving me a swing at their money though. I'll also add that I won't play it if it looks chalky or has several

horses under 5-1 or so that look like legitimate contenders. So I like it when it's up there and I didn't help

get it there 

[The Skipper]

Well just after I post in this thread the mail man brings me a half a dozen envelopes from Churchhill downs

that say important tax info on them, I just rip and throw away this junk mail but I was thinking that maybe

it's a sign to play it tonight 

[maywoodmaniac]

CC:

Solid analysis and a good topic to address.

I don't care for this wager. Tops the list of sucker bets.

[careless hal]

I've always liked the hi 5 bet.  The jackpot Hi 5 is even better for the reasons stated. 

[Jeremy]

Something that isn't accounted for is that by the 5th race a handicapper can figure out how the track is playing that night, or at least has a better idea.  There have been times where at Northfield I have played their pick 5 from races 3 to 7 and completely abandoned the horses that I originally selected in the 6th and 7th races because you almost needed to be first or second at the half to have a chance to win the race.

[The Skipper]

Something that isn't accounted for is that by the 5th race a handicapper can figure out how the track is playing that night, or at least has a better idea.  There have been times where at Northfield I have played their pick 5 from races 3 to 7 and completely abandoned the horses that I originally selected in the 6th and 7th races because you almost needed to be first or second at the half to have a chance to win the race.

He was talking about the Hi-5 Jeremy not the P-5 

[Jeremy]

He was talking about the Hi-5 Jeremy not the P-5 

Apparently I am the high one.

I still have a few more months to blame the tornado for scrambling my brain.

[Longshot Louie]

Interesting topic.  I feel like I'm playing the lottery - don't really expect to win but it's fun to play especially if you like to play a couple lucky numbers.  I too wonder how many uncovered combinations exist on a nightly basis.  Anyone know if that is available? 

[pezz97]

He was talking about the Hi-5 Jeremy not the P-5 

Umm there is a high 5 in race 5 as well.

Jeremy, brain not scrambled, you are right.

I have yet to bet either since they started. If the carryover gets like woodbine's is now or what it was last year, then i will think about it.

I am just happy the mile and 1/8 race is gone so I can look at the pick 5 and the early pick 4 regularly again.

[The Skipper]

Umm there is a high 5 in race 5 as well.

Jeremy, brain not scrambled, you are right.

I have yet to bet either since they started. If the carryover gets like woodbine's is now or what it was last year, then i will think about it.

I am just happy the mile and 1/8 race is gone so I can look at the pick 5 and the early pick 4 regularly again.

#1....Never correct your elders, even if I am just a couple months older than you 

#2....Reading is fundamental  There have been times where at Northfield I have played their pick 5 
 

#3....I don't think his brain is scrambled either, I do that shit about 20 times a day. 

#4....You better get some sleep you might be working a 24 hour shift. 

[pezz97]

#1....Never correct your elders, even if I am just a couple months older than you 

#2....Reading is fundamental  There have been times where at Northfield I have played their pick 5 
 

#3....I don't think his brain is scrambled either, I do that shit about 20 times a day. 

#4....You better get some sleep you might be working a 24 hour shift. 

My bad.

No Kidding, going to be a long couple of days