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General Category => General Harness Racing Discussion => Topic started by: maywoodmaniac on November 22, 2014, 07:37:34 AM

Title: Breeders Crown Handicapping
Post by: maywoodmaniac on November 22, 2014, 07:37:34 AM
Some standouts but some opportunities for decent prices tonight. Trying to figure out what's going to happen in the Open Pace with the Burke 4 vs. The Other 3.

Certain racing styles forecast Bettors Edge and Sweet Lou leaving, Foiled Again coming first over and Clear Vision following him. You've seen this before and you know how this works, so what do the other 3 do?

Modern Legend doesn't leave and State Treasurer is better when he has cover like when he won at Lexington.  That leaves Thinking Out Loud, and he looked really sharp finishing last week. McIntosh said in a story he made some changes that worked and was going to tinker again this week.

You should never underestimate Sweet Lou but he hasn't been himself since the Canadian Derby at Mohawk. I think this is his last race and they already have the stud deal in place. So given their history of dislike for each other, what are the chances Pierce and Campbell engage in some suicidal battle for the lead?

Thoughts?
Title: Re: Breeders Crown Handicapping
Post by: maywoodmaniac on November 22, 2014, 10:20:36 AM
JK She'salady (5th) and Nuncio (9th) look like locks and singles on any Pick 4 tickets.

Any others?
Title: Re: Breeders Crown Handicapping
Post by: cashman on November 22, 2014, 11:50:08 AM
Think you have to use both nuncio and FP
Title: Re: Breeders Crown Handicapping
Post by: Mags on November 22, 2014, 12:02:13 PM
Some standouts but some opportunities for decent prices tonight. Trying to figure out what's going to happen in the Open Pace with the Burke 4 vs. The Other 3.

Certain racing styles forecast Bettors Edge and Sweet Lou leaving, Foiled Again coming first over and Clear Vision following him. You've seen this before and you know how this works, so what do the other 3 do?

Modern Legend doesn't leave and State Treasurer is better when he has cover like when he won at Lexington.  That leaves Thinking Out Loud, and he looked really sharp finishing last week. McIntosh said in a story he made some changes that worked and was going to tinker again this week.

You should never underestimate Sweet Lou but he hasn't been himself since the Canadian Derby at Mohawk. I think this is his last race and they already have the stud deal in place. So given their history of dislike for each other, what are the chances Pierce and Campbell engage in some suicidal battle for the lead?

Thoughts?


I like Thinking Out Loud tonight. He certainly need a trip with 4 Burke horses in the race but he was finishing really weel last week. My other likes include the following:

Race 4 - #6 Muscle Diamond
Race 7 - #10 in the arsenal
Race 8 - #9 Rocklamation
Race 10 - #6JK Endofanera
Race 11 - #1 Youre So Vain
Race 12 - #6 Roar - my longshot of the night

good luck all
Title: Re: Breeders Crown Handicapping
Post by: maywoodmaniac on November 22, 2014, 12:31:21 PM
My early picks:

Race 1  #6 Texican over 4-5-9
Race 2  #5 Doctor Butch over 8-3
Race 3  #5 Sweet Justice over 10-3
Race 4  #5 Pinkman over 1-3
Race 5  #3 JK She'salady over 9-8-5
Race 6  #4 Thinking Out Loud over #5 Foiled Again and #6 Clear Vision
Race 7  #9 Lost For Words over 3-5
Race 8  Can't split them yet between 3-4-5-6 - going to come down to who's in the right spot
Race 9  #3 Nuncio over 10-9-6
Race 10 #4 Always B Miki will be tougher to beat without Limelight Beach. Over 6-3-2.
Race 11 #4 Maven over 1-9
Race 12 I agree with you Mags on #6 Roar, over 3-4-7
Race 13 #6 Gambler's Tale over 4-8-9

Good luck
Title: Re: Breeders Crown Handicapping
Post by: careless hal on November 22, 2014, 01:20:50 PM
Think you have to use both nuncio and FP
 
YUUP!

Crushed em,last night and reinvesting all my profits in tonight.  Hope that works out.  I'll just give my numpers Dan Yance style.

Race 1  4589
Race 2  278
Race 3
Race4  1356
Race 5  3
Race 6 134
Race 7  2510
Race 8  4589
Race 9 36
Race 10  4512
Race 11  2479
Race 12 14810
Race 13  1489

Fell asleep last night for the last 4.  When I got up after the races were over first thing I  noticed was my account balance when I signed back in.  Will Tetrick have any $60 winners tonight? 8) 8) 8)  Good luck all.
Title: Re: Breeders Crown Handicapping
Post by: burton on November 22, 2014, 02:19:52 PM
Race 1- Iam Bonasera has the best late kick in the bunch. Hasn't race in a month but had a qualifier and Miller usually has them ready to go. Hoping for an honest pace to get him in position.
8W4/6/5

Race 4- Pick Four (3/5/6-3-1/2/5/6-5/10)

Race 7 - In The Arsenal is my best bet. Was hard used last week to get the lead on a speed tiring track. Sears shut him down late when he knew he was beat but the horse still had some gas in the tank. Sears will overcome the 10 hole which should help the price. 10W5/3/9

Race 8 - Yagonnakissmeornot has had an incredible year against these mares is always there at the end of the mile. Should be lots of speed here so look for her to be closing late. 5W8/3/6
Pick Four (3/5/8-3-3/4/5-1/2/7/10)

Race 11- Your So Vain was flying late last week. Hadn't raced since August so I'm thinking he'll be a little sharper this week when he'll need to do more during the mile. Ake gets them in gear for the big ones. 1W2/7/10

Good luck to all!!!!!!
Title: Re: Breeders Crown Handicapping
Post by: tonyb147 on November 22, 2014, 04:04:25 PM
I kinda like the Harry Von Knoblauch - Peter Tritton sweep of the DD.
Title: Re: Breeders Crown Handicapping
Post by: CyberChamp on November 22, 2014, 04:15:33 PM
Good luck guys!

P5

456789/23678/357810/5/3
4569/378/358/13610/3
Title: Re: Breeders Crown Handicapping
Post by: RocknRoll on November 22, 2014, 04:16:25 PM
I kinda like the Harry Von Knoblauch - Peter Tritton sweep of the DD.

I can totally see that...I prefer Wake Up Peter in the 2nd but definitely like Texican in the first.
Title: Re: Breeders Crown Handicapping
Post by: tonyb147 on November 22, 2014, 04:18:55 PM
$0.50 Pick-5    4,5,6,​WT,3,7,​WT,1,3,8,10,​WT,1,3,5,6,​WT,3

played a few smaller tickets with horse #3 in legs 3 and 5 being singles. If Master of Law can't beat this field he should be Amished.

I can totally see that...I prefer Wake Up Peter in the 2nd but definitely like Texican in the first.

I agree that Wake Up Peter is the horse to beat. Only used 3 and 7 in that leg.
Title: Re: Breeders Crown Handicapping
Post by: pezz97 on November 22, 2014, 04:19:13 PM
Pick 5


6,10 x 3,7,8 x 3,5,7 x 1,3,5,6,7 x 3

4,5,6,8,10 x 3,7,8 x 3 1,3,5,6,7 x 3

Good Luck All
Title: Re: Breeders Crown Handicapping
Post by: tonyb147 on November 22, 2014, 04:26:50 PM
Pick 5


6,10 x 3,7,8 x 3,5,7 x 1,3,5,6,7 x 3

4,5,6,8,10 x 3,7,8 x 3 1,3,5,6,7 x 3

Good Luck All

Sears almost got you started at a nice price on the #10.
Title: Re: Breeders Crown Handicapping
Post by: CyberChamp on November 22, 2014, 04:33:14 PM
Breakdown

R1 - 6,4,5     8,7,9
R2 - 3,7,8     2($),6($)
R3 - 8($),3(?),7,10,5      6
R4 - 5     3,1,6,10     4($)
R5 - 3     9    4,5
R6 - 5,1,6,7     3($)
R7 - 3($),10,2,5,9      4($)
R8 - 3,5    4,7,8    6($),9
R9 - 3,6      10,7
R10 - 4     6,3     1($),2($)
R11 - 4,1,9,2    6,7    5,3
R12 - 8,10,9    2($),4   1($),5
R13 - 8,9


Thoughts
R1 - TEXICAN is the class.
R2 - WAKE UP PETER should be well positioned, draws inside AL'S HAMMERED.
R3 - NF HAPPENSTANCE has been tough all season, races up front.
R4 - PINKMAN looks tough, might get roughed up tonight?
R5 - JK SHE'SALADY has been sensational.
R6 - Wide open race.  I think FOILED AGAIN and BETTOR'S EDGE will take this from the front.
R7 - Looking for some Burke magic with LYONS LEVI LEWIS at a small price.
R8 - VOELZ HANOVER gets my vote with Sears aboard.
R9 - Calling NUNCIO over FATHER PATRICK tonight
R10 - Speed wasn't all that great last week and ALWAYS B MIKI still lasted.  Speed is much better this weekend.
R11 - MAVEN was absolutely game last week for first time Takter.  Wishing her luck tonight.
R12 - DREAMLANDS ART showed two moves last week, tough tonight.
R13 - DADDY MAC held well against the speed bias last week

Good luck!
Title: Re: Breeders Crown Handicapping
Post by: pezz97 on November 22, 2014, 04:48:03 PM
Sears almost got you started at a nice price on the #10.
Would of been great. Still ok.
Title: Re: Breeders Crown Handicapping
Post by: pezz97 on November 22, 2014, 05:05:15 PM
$0.50 Pick-5    4,5,6,​WT,3,7,​WT,1,3,8,10,​WT,1,3,5,6,​WT,3

played a few smaller tickets with horse #3 in legs 3 and 5 being singles. If Master of Law can't beat this field he should be Amished.

I agree that Wake Up Peter is the horse to beat. Only used 3 and 7 in that leg.
keep it going
Title: Re: Breeders Crown Handicapping
Post by: pezz97 on November 22, 2014, 05:11:39 PM
Good luck guys!

P5

456789/23678/357810/5/3
4569/378/358/13610/3
u 2
Title: Re: Breeders Crown Handicapping
Post by: pezz97 on November 22, 2014, 05:23:41 PM
race 4 pick 4


1,3,5,6,7, x 3 x all x 10
Title: Re: Breeders Crown Handicapping
Post by: tonyb147 on November 22, 2014, 05:23:59 PM
PK4: last two legs are singles, last two are wide open

5/3/all/all
1,3,5,6,​WT,3,​WT,1,2,4,5,6,7,​WT,2,3,5,7,10
Title: Re: Breeders Crown Handicapping
Post by: CyberChamp on November 22, 2014, 05:47:08 PM
Bridgejumpers
Title: Re: Breeders Crown Handicapping
Post by: tonyb147 on November 22, 2014, 05:52:06 PM
My $20 "just in case" show bet in on JC #2
Title: Re: Breeders Crown Handicapping
Post by: pezz97 on November 22, 2014, 05:58:57 PM
HOTY!!
Title: Re: Breeders Crown Handicapping
Post by: tonyb147 on November 22, 2014, 06:00:56 PM
No doubt. 12 for 12 makes it a pretty easy choice IMO  thumbsup
Title: Re: Breeders Crown Handicapping
Post by: pezz97 on November 22, 2014, 06:03:45 PM
nice start Tony and Champ
Title: Re: Breeders Crown Handicapping
Post by: CyberChamp on November 22, 2014, 06:06:40 PM
HOTY!!

 thumbsup
Title: Re: Breeders Crown Handicapping
Post by: CyberChamp on November 22, 2014, 06:08:35 PM
nice start Tony and Champ

Thx!

Chalky night so far.  shootme
Title: Re: Breeders Crown Handicapping
Post by: CyberChamp on November 22, 2014, 06:10:26 PM
Not sure what to make of STATE TREASURER.  Not sure if he can beat these.  DMiller gave action last week and was winging on the lead on a night that probably didn't favor speed.  Tossed him out tonight, but this is a pretty wide open race.
Title: Re: Breeders Crown Handicapping
Post by: tonyb147 on November 22, 2014, 06:16:14 PM
Not sure what to make of STATE TREASURER.  Not sure if he can beat these.  DMiller gave action last week and was winging on the lead on a night that probably didn't favor speed.  Tossed him out tonight, but this is a pretty wide open race.

He's the only one of the seven I tossed from my spread ticket. lol he'll win now  slaphead
Title: Re: Breeders Crown Handicapping
Post by: tonyb147 on November 22, 2014, 06:28:52 PM
Another night that I didn't cash on my favorite horse, Thinking Out Loud.  yeahbabydrinkingguy
Title: Re: Breeders Crown Handicapping
Post by: LVGaryD on November 22, 2014, 06:29:26 PM
Driving god Miller tossed a monkey wrench into the race. If he doesn't pull, Sweet Lou jiggy jogs. Was a great race!

 slaphead
Title: Re: Breeders Crown Handicapping
Post by: tonyb147 on November 22, 2014, 06:43:27 PM
Driving god Miller tossed a monkey wrench into the race. If he doesn't pull, Sweet Lou jiggy jogs. Was a great race!

 slaphead

Agree, even Bob McIntosh pointed that out in his post race interview. 26.2 third-qtr pressure was just enough to soften up Lou. Made for a much better race. Incredible that 27.3 opening qtr was the slowest of the race.
Title: Re: Breeders Crown Handicapping
Post by: tonyb147 on November 22, 2014, 06:53:22 PM
Andyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy   yeahbabydrinkingguy

Julieeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee  heartluv
Title: Re: Breeders Crown Handicapping
Post by: CyberChamp on November 22, 2014, 06:58:48 PM
 thumbsup
Title: Re: Breeders Crown Handicapping
Post by: pezz97 on November 22, 2014, 07:10:08 PM
late pick 4

3,4,5,8,9,11x 3,6 x 3,4,6 x 9

3,4,5,8,9 x 6 x 3 x 4,7,10
Title: Re: Breeders Crown Handicapping
Post by: CyberChamp on November 22, 2014, 07:18:37 PM
I was rooting for Brennan there since I hit the ALL button.   noway
Title: Re: Breeders Crown Handicapping
Post by: CyberChamp on November 22, 2014, 07:32:38 PM
Got one of those feelings that something crazy is going to happen in this race.
Title: Re: Breeders Crown Handicapping
Post by: LVGaryD on November 22, 2014, 07:41:25 PM
Agree, even Bob McIntosh pointed that out in his post race interview. 26.2 third-qtr pressure was just enough to soften up Lou. Made for a much better race. Incredible that 27.3 opening qtr was the slowest of the race.
McIntosh probably heard that I'd written that and used my material in his interview. 

 idunno ;D
Title: Re: Breeders Crown Handicapping
Post by: careless hal on November 22, 2014, 11:35:28 PM
No doubt. 12 for 12 makes it a pretty easy choice IMO  thumbsup
HOTY!!

Impressive beast.

Maven didn't win but what a tough mare.

McIntosh probably heard that I'd written that and used my material in his interview. 

 idunno ;D

That's what I thought-----------------------------------NOT! rflmao1

 11/22 1:57 PM Meadowlands Harness 4 $1.00 P4 (PWHL)  1, 5 / 3 / 1, 3, 4 / 2, 5 $12.00 $141.80 

Ecked out about a $100 profit for the night.  Was hoping for a lot more, but beats a sharp  stick in the eye.