http://handicapping.ustrotting.com/pandycapping.cfmIn Search Of A Better Morning Line - by Bob Pandolfo
(This updated column was originally published in DRF/HARNESS)
The morning line is supposed to show where the money is going to go. Basically, which horses are going to be favorites, and which horses are going to be longshots. There's a mathematical formula that the line maker is supposed to follow to ensure that the line is mathematically feasible. Most use 120 points, since the takeout is roughly 20%. If you see a line like this, 2-1, 5-2, 3-1, 7-2, 4-1, 9-2, 5-1, 10-1, you know that whoever made the line didn't use the proper formula, because this line equals 170 points.
Many tracks had poor morning lines. When a track has a bad morning line, it's reflects poorly on the track. The morning line is a service the track provides for its customers. The line is important, especially for new customers, and novices.
TrackMaster has come up with an automated line that's available to harness tracks free of charge. They started working on this about a year ago. This year, TrackMaster, and the USTA, finalized the project, and as of March, 2014, the free service was available to member tracks.
TrackMaster developed a computer algorithm that analyzes 75 different variables, and through a process called linear regression, creates a morning line. There were also nine different categories of data reflecting different track sizes. This also allows the program to differentiate pace and race classes. Races with a bunch of first time starters have to be handled differently than a $10,000 claimer. Basically, it's a lot of number crunching.
TrackMaster then compared their morning line with the existing morning lines. This ongoing test covers several hundred thousand races. The first test was the entire year of 2011. They compared their morning line, and the morning lines that the tracks were using, to the actual final odds.
I have the results for the entire year of 2011. Out of 66 tracks that ran regular, long meets, TrackMaster's automated morning line beat the host track's ML at 64 tracks. Cal Expo and the Meadowlands were the only tracks that edged the Trackmaster automated line, and it was by a narrow margin.
The results for the tracks that race long meets are impressive. At, Balmoral, Dover Downs, Freehold, Hoosier, Hazel, The Meadows, Maywood, Monticello, Northfield, Pocono Downs, Pompano, Yonkers, and most other tracks, TrackMaster's morning line was more accurate than all of them.
I looked at the statistics. I have no bias, I'm not affiliated with TrackMaster. But, from the stats I've seen, TrackMaster's automated morning line is consistently better at virtually every harness track that runs a regular meet, and in many cases, it's a much better line. The automated morning line is not perfect and there are certainly horses that go off at much different odds. But, you can't argue with the stats.
As you probably know, I do picks for the Meadowlands for the USTA. I give my top four contenders in each race, and my own odds line for each contender. My line is based more on each horse's chances than what I feel the horses will go off at. It's a betting line. But, despite all of my experience, my line can be way off on some horses, too. No one knows where the money is going to go. We're making an educated guess.
The bottom line is, the more accurate the morning line is, the better it is for the customer. And the TrackMaster/USTA automated line proved to be statistically superior in almost all cases.
This service is available free of charge. Any racetrack can use the line. Since the service is computerized, the line is generated in 10 to 15 seconds.
Since the service started in March, here are the tracks that have used, or are currently using, the automated morning line:
Running Aces
Bangor
Cal Expo
Dayton
Du Quoin
Springfield
Freehold
Harrah's Philly
Rosecroft
Yonkers
Plainridge
Tracks that would like to use this free service can contact Sherry Antion-Mohr at the USTA, or David Siegel (dsiegel@trackmaster.com). They can get more information, including a detailed research paper they call the "White Paper," at
www.trackmaster.com/racetrack.
There are tracks that have a knowledgeable and qualified person doing their morning line. At the Meadowlands, for instance, Darin Zoccali does the morning line. He's an experienced handicapper who watches all the races, including the qualifiers, live and in person. He's the guy you want doing the line. But, based on the statistics TrackMaster has compiled, not many tracks take the morning line seriously. It makes sense for these tracks to use this free service. It's creates uniformity and consistency, and helps to provide a better experience for Harness Racing's customers.
