In The Sulky Forum
General Category => Thoroughbreds => Topic started by: NIATROSS on April 29, 2012, 08:37:26 PM
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Less than a week to go and time to narrow down the field.
Why is Lukas still training Optinizer hoping for a slot in the race ?
The horse was not good enuff to earn his way in money wise and only has a maiden win to his credit.
Why enter Trinneberg ? I think the horse has never raced beyond 7 furlongs.
Alot has been made about horses who did not race as 2 not winning the Derby since 1882.The majoroity of them were 20-1 or longer.Air ForbesWon I think was the only fav.
There is a lot to like about Bodemeister.The recent works over the CD track have been as good or better than anyone's.It also shows their is more left in the tank.He may even regress a little from his last race and still be good enuff to beat these.If he improves off his last which is possible with only 4 starts lookout.
IMO he is either a single or you toss and go at least 4 deep.
What are your thoughts ?
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Him and Union Rags have had the best works at Churchill.
I said it in an earlier thread, he is my pick. With Trinnenberg in the race, it allows everyone to see Bodemeister rate off the pace. They have been training him off of his workmate, so I seen him sitting about 5th or 6th. I am betting him to win, and using Gemologist and Union Rags in ex and tri's.
As far as the pick4, these 3 will be used as well as Alpha, Creative Cause, I'll have another, and even thou I don't like Take Charge Indy, he will be on my ticket just cause I am not letting Calvin Beat me again. Got to love being able to play the pick 4 for .50
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You are right about Union Rags.He moved up on my list based on his workouts.
I will also being using Take Charge Indy for a couple of reasons one of them being Calvin.Say what you will about a speed and track bias at GP but the win was impressive.
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There is a lot to like about Bodemeister.
Yes there is. But, I'm not ready to single him yet. I like Gemologist and Hansen and am eyeballing a few longy candidates.
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There is a lot to like about Bodemeister.
Yes there is. But, I'm not ready to single him yet. I like Gemologist and Hansen and am eyeballing a few longy candidates.
Hard to knock either of those picks especially with Gemologist being unbeaten.
They both also show wins over the CD surface.
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On about 75% of my tickets, bodemeister will be on top. The rest I will probably have him on my tickets but I wont need him in the top 4 to win.
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Bodemeister, Union Rags, Gemologist, and Daddy Nose Best are my top 4.
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Probably going with I'll Have Another, for no particular reason. idunno
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Optimizer in, Mark Valeski out.
Kudos to Larry Jones and the owner(s) of Mark Valeski for not letting Derby Fever infect them. bowdown
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I'm tossing Trinneberg and Optimizer.Hopefully someone other than those 2 draws the rail so I can toss that one out also.
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Optimizer in, Mark Valeski out.
Kudos to Larry Jones and the owner(s) of Mark Valeski for not letting Derby Fever infect them. bowdown
thumbsup
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I like to see Trinneburg draw the rail and Gemologist the 19 or 20 same with Bode 4pezz2. As I said before Baffert said Bode best is when he goes to the front and he also said he wasn't going to alter those plans BUT Trinneburg might change all of that. rflmao1 I didn't like to see what Harrington said about Creative Cause in that he doesn't like to be crowded!!!! 20 horses what do you think is going to happen!!
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I like to see Trinneburg draw the rail and Gemologist the 19 or 20 same with Bode 4pezz2. As I said before Baffert said Bode best is when he goes to the front and he also said he wasn't going to alter those plans BUT Trinneburg might change all of that. rflmao1 I didn't like to see what Harrington said about Creative Cause in that he doesn't like to be crowded!!!! 20 horses what do you think is going to happen!!
Creative Cause is now an AUTOTOSS after those comments. It's like he wants people to not bet his horse...
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Creative Cause is now an AUTOTOSS after those comments. It's like he wants people to not bet his horse...
How was his work the other day?
and maybe he doesn't want people to bet him so he can have all the cheese.
I'll have a closer look at this horse.
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How was his work the other day?
and maybe he doesn't want people to bet him so he can have all the cheese.
I'll have a closer look at this horse.
I think it was 47 1/5. If you look at his stats he has NEVER been off the board. Came in third to Hansen and Union Rags at Churchill only beaten 1 length. He beat Bode and was goofing off in the stretch. Was "crowded" in the stretch drive and came in second in the Santa Anita Derby. I do have this horse in the futures though.
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How was his work the other day?
and maybe he doesn't want people to bet him so he can have all the cheese.
I'll have a closer look at this horse.
According to Mike Welch of DRF.com he was average. The time for 4 Furlongs was 47.54.
http://www.drf.com/news/kentucky-derby-workouts-daddy-nose-best-looking-ready-his-best
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Im tossing bode and hansen
My top choice right now is Union Rags
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I think it was 47 1/5. If you look at his stats he has NEVER been off the board. Came in third to Hansen and Union Rags at Churchill only beaten 1 length. He beat Bode and was goofing off in the stretch. Was "crowded" in the stretch drive and came in second in the Santa Anita Derby. I do have this horse in the futures though.
thanks puddy for this important data thumbsup
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I like to see Trinneburg draw the rail and Gemologist the 19 or 20 same with Bode 4pezz2. As I said before Baffert said Bode best is when he goes to the front and he also said he wasn't going to alter those plans BUT Trinneburg might change all of that. rflmao1 I didn't like to see what Harrington said about Creative Cause in that he doesn't like to be crowded!!!! 20 horses what do you think is going to happen!!
he is getting reasy for Bode to come off the pace. His last 2 works, he broke off 6-7 lenghts off his work mate. He will not be on the lead, or in a duel JMO
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he is getting reasy for Bode to come off the pace. His last 2 works, he broke off 6-7 lenghts off his work mate. He will not be on the lead, or in a duel JMO
Those are WORKS!! Not racing. If he tries for the lead with Trinn. Then he will be walking home. Is he a better horse than Union Rags and Creative Cause coming off the pace? Then you have Gemologist with the hot riding Castellano. Rosario isn't no slouch either if you talk about jocks that are hot.
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Those are WORKS!! Not racing. If he tries for the lead with Trinn. Then he will be walking home. Is he a better horse than Union Rags and Creative Cause coming off the pace? Then you have Gemologist with the hot riding Castellano. Rosario isn't no slouch either if you talk about jocks that are hot.
Puddy, I understand you don't like him that is fine. We don't know if he is a better horse than those from off the pace. I could be completely wrong, it won't be the first time.
One thing I do know with Union Rags is his jockey got him in trouble in a 7 horse field in the Florida derby, what he is going to do with 19 others?
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Puddy, I understand you don't like him that is fine. We don't know if he is a better horse than those from off the pace. I could be completely wrong, it won't be the first time.
One thing I do know with Union Rags is his jockey got him in trouble in a 7 horse field in the Florida derby, what he is going to do with 19 others?
All of his races have been at three yrs old right? He was right up to the lead in all his races. As for me I won't be betting him if he has to "learn to rate" when he never done it before. As for Peppy Lepew? rflmao1 He's Pat Day and Eddie D. wait wait wait and bam. Not saying that's a bad thing but..... The horse that is bred out of his ass is Borel's horse.
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All of his races have been at three yrs old right? He was right up to the lead in all his races. As for me I won't be betting him if he has to "learn to rate" when he never done it before. As for Peppy Lepew? rflmao1 He's Pat Day and Eddie D. wait wait wait and bam. Not saying that's a bad thing but..... The horse that is bred out of his ass is Borel's horse.
peppy Lepew!! I love it rflmao1 rflmao1 rflmao1 rflmao1
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I will post more later, but did the draw affect anyone's thinking? Not mine. Hansen is a talented athlete, but is not psychologically capable of winning. He can put just enough pressure on Bode (along with Trinni) to cost the likely fave the race. Dullahan is much improved over last year's form. The race sets up well for him.
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I will post more later, but did the draw affect anyone's thinking? Not mine. Hansen is a talented athlete, but is not psychologically capable of winning. He can put just enough pressure on Bode (along with Trinni) to cost the likely fave the race. Dullahan is much improved over last year's form. The race sets up well for him.
The draw helped me add another one to my toss out list.
I have a hard time picking a horse who has yet to win on the dirt.
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I will post more later, but did the draw affect anyone's thinking? Not mine. Hansen is a talented athlete, but is not psychologically capable of winning. He can put just enough pressure on Bode (along with Trinni) to cost the likely fave the race. Dullahan is much improved over last year's form. The race sets up well for him.
The draw gave me more confidence in Daddy Nose Best
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1.daddy longlegs - rail killed any real chance / toss out
2.optimizer - talk about wasting money entering a horse / toss out
3.take charge indy - interesting horse espcially with borel aboard
4.union rags - seems primed but usually finds trouble
5.dullahan - zero wins on the dirt / toss out
6.bodemeister - key to the race if he continues to improve lookout
7.rousing sermon - too slow / toss out
8.creative cause - live contender
9.trinneberg - absolutelly no shot on fast track / toss out
10.daddy nose best - improving but a step too slow for these / toss out
11.alpha - live horse but only bad race was on cd surface
12.prospective - too slow no shot / toss out
13.went the day well - live same connections as last yrs winner
14.hansen - having trouble seeing him get the last 1/8 mile / toss out
15.gemologist - undefeated hard to knock
16.el padrino - interesting horse
17.done talking - no shot glad he is outside / toss out
18.sabercat - another no shot glad he is outside / toss out
19.i'll have another- getting better has a shot
20.liaison - another with no shot also glad he is outside / toss out
Toss outs 1,2,5,7,9,10,12,14,17,18,20
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is the derby program available free online anywhere?
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My Derby take at drf.com - http://www.drf.com/news/gisser-harness-guy-takes-kentucky-derby
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My Derby take at drf.com - http://www.drf.com/news/gisser-harness-guy-takes-kentucky-derby
Nice article Giss. I am sure if you wanted to put your pic with a cigar on DRF they wouldn't care.... rflmao1
IMO this is the best time of the year. A harness guy who just loves this weekend that is coming up! Good luck to everyone wagering tomorrow and Sat.
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Nice article Giss. I am sure if you wanted to put your pic with a cigar on DRF they wouldn't care.... rflmao1
IMO this is the best time of the year. A harness guy who just loves this weekend that is coming up! Good luck to everyone wagering tomorrow and Sat.
And of course the ITHA almost ruined it.
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And of course the ITHA almost ruined it.
Dickie has a lot of blame there as well if not more. We would of been ok, we have online accounts...
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Dickie has a lot of blame there as well if not more. We would of been ok, we have online accounts...
I agree. I think they knew that too.
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I agree. I think they knew that too.
Kudos to the Kentucky horseman. If they didn't do what they did, there would still be no deal GUARANTEED!!!
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Here are some early auto tosses for my ITS fans.
Exacta box
6-10-15 with 3-4-5-6-8-10-11-14-15-19
Since I already have Gemologist in 2 of the future pools, I will probably use him in a bunch of exotics and not any win bets.
I am not sure why, but I keep looking at #8 Creative Cause. I can't put my finger on it.
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Here are some early auto tosses for my ITS fans.
Exacta box
6-10-15 with 3-4-5-6-8-10-11-14-15-19
Since I already have Gemologist in 2 of the future pools, I will probably use him in a bunch of exotics and not any win bets.
I am not sure why, but I keep looking at #8 Creative Cause. I can't put my finger on it.
I downloaded the program and looked at him for awhile as well. He will be on top of one of my non bodemeister tickets
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I downloaded the program and looked at him for awhile as well. He will be on top of one of my non bodemeister tickets
Pay attention to him in the warm up for the actuall race wagers. He is a spooky horse and with 140K people there, see if he acts up. I am using him as well but something to look for
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Pay attention to him in the warm up for the actuall race wagers. He is a spooky horse and with 140K people there, see if he acts up. I am using him as well but something to look for
I almost freaked last year when I saw Shackleford all washed up before the Preakness.
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Pay attention to him in the warm up for the actuall race wagers. He is a spooky horse and with 140K people there, see if he acts up. I am using him as well but something to look for
Thanks
I'll watch mostly for the next 2 races, I will have made my bets at the track and will be home watching on TV.
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Based on the will pays from the Oaks/Derby Double, the top Derby choices so far show no big surprises.
Union Rags
Bodemeister
Gemologist
Dullahan
Creative Cause
Daddy Nose Best
Alpha
Take Charge Indy
Hansen
Went The Day Well
Is there a way to find current Win Odds for the Derby?
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Based on the will pays from the Oaks/Derby Double, the top Derby choices so far show no big surprises.
Union Rags
Bodemeister
Gemologist
Dullahan
Creative Cause
Daddy Nose Best
Alpha
Take Charge Indy
Hansen
Went The Day Well
Is there a way to find current Win Odds for the Derby?
1 Daddy Long Legs Aidan O'Brien Colm O'Donoghue 30 25
2 Optimizer D. Lukas Jon Court 50 27
3 Take Charge Indy Patrick Byrne Calvin Borel 15 9
4 Union Rags Michael Matz Julien Leparoux 9/2 6
5 Dullahan Dale Romans Kent Desormeaux 8 11
6 Bodemeister Bob Baffert Mike Smith 4 7
7 Rousing Sermon Jerry Hollendorfer Jose Lezcano 50 22
8 Creative Cause Mike Harrington Joel Rosario 12 13
9 Trinniberg Bisnath Parboo Willie Martinez 50 46
10 Daddy Nose Best Steven Asmussen Garrett Gomez 15 14
11 Alpha Kiaran McLaughlin Rajiv Maragh 15 26
12 Prospective Mark Casse Luis Contreras 30 68
13 Went the Day Well H. Motion John Velazquez 20 17
14 Hansen Michael Maker Ramon Dominguez 10 7
15 Gemologist Todd Pletcher Javier Castellano 6 7
16 El Padrino Todd Pletcher Rafael Bejarano 20 34
17 Done Talking Hamilton Smith Sheldon Russell 50 38
18 Sabercat Steven Asmussen Corey Nakatani 30 36
19 I'll Have Another Doug O'Neill Mario Gutierrez 12 17
20 Liaison Bob Baffert Martin Garcia 50 56
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I'M going Gemologist, I think he will be in the second tier of horses
just off the speed. Make his run and try to hold off all the closers.
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Here's my autotoss and that's Bodemeister. He won't hit the board!!!! shootme
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Well I didn't expect him to outbreak the sprinter, but because he did, it probably cost him. I think he was clearly the best horse today
Peppy Lepuw got Rags in trouble, there is a surprise!!!! Not
Hansen was so worked up, he looked pink.
Great Ride By Gutierrez Got I'll have another in a great spot at the break and had a great trip. I am sure Tross is happy ONeil won the derby ::)
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Well I didn't expect him to outbreak the sprinter, but because he did, it probably cost him. I think he was clearly the best horse today
Peppy Lepuw got Rags in trouble, there is a surprise!!!! Not
Hansen was so worked up, he looked pink.
Great Ride By Gutierrez Got I'll have another in a great spot at the break and had a great trip. I am sure Tross is happy ONeil won the derby ::)
Not surpirised the 19 won but a very tough beat to take.Made money on the race but lost money on the day.
Congrats to the connections.